Will the Phillies and Astros clinch their respected divisions as home favorites tonight? Will the Giants and Diamondbacks combine for enough runs to cash the over? Check out our Monday MLB Best Bets.
MLB Best Bets Recap
With all the football action over the weekend, I didn’t have an opportunity to write a MLB Best Bets article over the weekend. My last MLB Best Bets column was on Friday, in which I backed the Mets (-115), the Diamondbacks (-125) and the under 8 in the Guardians versus Cardinals matchup. While the Mets were hammered 12-2 by the Phillies, the Diamondbacks beat the Brewers, 7-4. The Guardians and Cardinals also only combined for six runs, cashing the under and a 2-1 ATS day for us.
Monday MLB Best Bet: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+120)
The Phillies will try once again to clinch their first National League East Division title since 2011 when they open a three-game series against the Cubs on Monday. Their magic number is one to secure the NL East and they could have clinched Saturday or Sunday with a win over the Mets. That said, they lost 6-3 on Saturday and 2-1 last night to delay their celebration.
I expect Philadelphia to get it done tonight against Chicago. In the last 10 meetings between these two teams, the Phillies are 7-3. They did drop their last meeting with Chicago 10-2 at Wrigley Field on July 4, but that snapped a seven-game win streak for the Phillies over the Cubs.
They’ll also have Aaron Nola on the hill tonight. While he’s 2-3 over his last five starts, he’s allowed an average of 2.6 earned runs over that span. Nate Pearson, meanwhile, will make his first start since 2021. He’s started on the mound five times in his 109 career appearances and now faces a tall task against Philadelphia’s outstanding lineup.
Monday MLB Best Bet: Houston Astros -155
Bryce Miller has pitched well for the Mariners of late (2-3, 1.82 ERA over his last five starts), but I don’t trust Seattle on the road. The M’s are just 34-44 away from their home park this season, losing $1,095 for bettors in the process. They have played the Astros well this season, winning six out of the last 10 meetings with Houston, but the ‘Stros have been a different team in the second half.
Houston will also send Hunter Brown to the mound to oppose Miller. He owns a 2.43 ERA over his last five starts while allowing just 1.6 earned runs per outing. He has faced the Mariners three times this season, holding Seattle to an average of 1.0 earned runs in the process.
With the Astros able to clinch the American League West tonight, I’m backing Houston on the moneyline.
Monday MLB Best Bet: Giants vs. Diamondbacks over 9
Both of these National League West rivals have been strong ‘over’ teams this season. The over is 79-71 in San Francisco’s games this season and is 89-61 in Arizona contests in 2024.
Hayden Birdsong has also struggled for the Giants. He owns a 1-4 record with a 4.22 ERA over his last five starts. Eduardo Rodriguez has been even worse for Arizona. He’s 2-3 record with a 5.84 ERA over his last five outings. Rodriguez is averaging just 4 2/3 innings of work and has allowed 3.2 earned runs over that span.
Finally, the over is 6-3-1 in the last 10 meetings between these rivals.
