Will the Astros’ bats stay hot against Yu Darvish? Does the White Sox’ offense actually provide bettors value? Can the Mets attack Jake Irvin? Check out our Monday MLB Team Total Predictions.
Sunday MLB Team Total Recap
It was a rough Sunday in this space. Following 2-1 ATS back-to-back MLB team total columns, I went o-f’er yesterday. The Blue Jays never got going against Miles Mikolas and fell under 4.5 runs in their 3-2 victory over the Cardinals. It was the same story in Cleveland, where the Guardians had a great matchup against Taj Bradley but finished with only a pair of runs in their 2-0 victory. The reverse trifecta occurred in the ESPN Sunday Night Baseball game, as the Braves were held to only two runs despite facing the struggling Walker Buehler.
With that 0-for-3 performance, my MLB team total selections are now 4-8 ATS on the season. Let’s clean it up tonight.
Monday MLB Team Total Prediction: Mets over 4.5 runs (+114)
Nationals starting pitching Jake Irvin has allowed 4.0 runs per start over his last five outings. He did hold the Braves to only one run in his last start on September 11, but was hammered for six runs by the Pirates in the outing previous to the matchup with Atlanta. He hasn’t allowed a home run in back-to-back games, but did surrender four gopher balls in the three of his last five games.
As for the Mets, they were held in check by Christopher Sanchez of the Phillies on Sunday but scored four runs on Saturday and 11 on Friday night in Philadelphia. They’ve scored at least four runs in three of their last four games.
Monday MLB Team Total Prediction: White Sox over 3.5 Runs (+100)
The White Sox have had a horrendous season but they’ve scored at least four runs in three of their last four games. They also have a tasty matchup with Reid Detmers, who is 2-3 with a 6.57 ERA over his last five starts. Over those five outings, he’s averaged just 4 2/3 innings of work while surrendering 4.8 hits and 3.6 runs per contest. Detmers has also struggled to keep the ball in the yard, allowing a home run in three of his last five games and four long balls overall.
Monday MLB Team Total Prediction: Astros over 3.5 Runs (-120)
The Astros’ matchup against Yu Darvish might seem daunting tonight. However, the numbers for the San Diego starter paint a different picture. He’s 3-2 over his last five starts, but his ERA is 5.40 over that span. He has averaged just 4 2/3 innings. He’s also allowing 5.6 hits per game over that span and 3.0 runs. His biggest issue has been keeping the ball in the yard. Darvish coughed up two home runs against the Mariners in his last start on September 10. With that total, he has now allowed an average of 1.4 home runs per game over his last five outings.
As for Houston’s bats, the Astros are red hot. They have scored at least five runs in four consecutive games and at least four runs in six straight contests. This is my favorite baseball play of the night.