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Phillies vs. Mets Prediction: Will New York hammer Nola?

Phillies vs. Mets Prediction Phillies vs. Mets Prediction
Oct 28, 2022; Houston, Texas, USA; Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Aaron Nola (27) looks on during the first inning against the Houston Astros in game one of the 2022 World Series at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

​The Philadelphia Phillies (13–9) open a three-game series against the New York Mets (15–7) on Monday, April 21, 2025, at Citi Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET, with television coverage on SNY and NBC Sports Philadelphia. What’s the best bet in tonight’s Phillies vs. Mets matchup?

Game Matchup & Betting Odds

Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets

7:10 p.m. ET, Monday, April 21, 2025

Citi Field, Queens, NY

Phillies vs. Mets Betting Odds

According to oddsmakers from online sportsbook Bovada.lv, the Mets are -120 moneyline favorites. The Phillies, meanwhile, are +100 moneyline underdogs. As for the total, it sits at 8 runs.

Phillies vs. Mets Public Betting: Bettors Leaning NY

As of this writing, our MLB Public Betting Page shows that 52% of the bets are on the Mets’ moneyline. That said, this page is updated frequently so make sure that you click on the link provided so that you’re getting the most updated information.

Pitching Matchup

Aaron Nola (PHI)

Nola enters the game with an 0–4 record and a 6.65 ERA over 21 2/3 innings this season, despite recording 25 strikeouts . Historically, he has performed well against the Mets, holding a 10–9 record with a 3.46 ERA and 205 strikeouts in 28 appearances.

Tylor Megill (NYM)

Megill has started the season strong, posting a 2–2 record with a 1.40 ERA and 20 strikeouts . Against the Phillies, he has a career 3–1 record with a 2.51 ERA and 34 strikeouts in six appearances.

Mets: Riding a four-game winning streak, the Mets have been solid at home and are slight favorites for this matchup.

Phillies: Despite a decent start to the season, the Phillies are looking to rebound after recent losses and will rely on Nola to set the tone for the series.​

Key Players to Watch

Phillies: Bryce Harper and Nick Castellanos continue to be central to the Phillies’ offense.

Mets: Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso are key contributors to the Mets’ lineup, providing both power and consistency.​

Phillies vs. Mets MLB BETTING PREDICTION

This matchup features a contrast between Nola’s experience and Megill’s early-season form. The outcome may hinge on which pitcher can better manage the opposing lineup and provide a quality start. Given Nola’s issues, I’m going to back the Mets.

Phillies vs. Mets MLB Playoffs Prediction: NEW YORK METS -120

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