Will the Yankees rebound versus the Pirates despite facing Paul Skenes? Can the Padres put even more pressure on the Diamondbacks? Will the Brewers continue to own the Mets?
Friday MLB Best Bets Recap
My three recommendations as best bets for Friday were the Guardians (-125) over the Astros, the Brewers (-105) over the Mets and the Orioles (+135) over the Twins. Cleveland fell 5-2 to the Astros, but Milwaukee scored four runs in the first and another in the second en route to an 8-4 victory over New York. Baltimore also used a four-run eighth to soundly beat Minnesota 7-2, giving us a 2-1 day.
In what has turned out to be a profitable week, let’s keep things rolling on the second-to-last regular season day in the MLB.
Saturday MLB Best Bet: New York Yankees -135, 1:05 p.m. ET
I don’t care that the Yankees are facing Paul Skenes today: When New York is less than -150 on the moneyline, I’ll at least consider the Bronx Bombers. The Yankees are also still attempting to wrap up the best record in the American League. Thus, they have something to play for in the final weekend of the MLB season.
The Pirates, meanwhile, are wrapping up their sixth straight losing season and eighth in nine years. They did open this series with a 4-2 win over the Yankees on Friday, but the Bucs only have 19 wins in their last 50 games.
While the Skenes will toe the rubber today for the Pirates, the Yankees will counter with Luis Gil. He’s tied with the Cubs’ Shota Imanga for the most wins among rookies. He’s also fourth among rookies with 166 strikeouts and has allowed one run or fewer 17 times. That’s one shy of the team record hel by Jack Chesbro in 1904.
Saturday MLB Best Bet: Milwaukee Brewers -110, 7:15 p.m. ET
As I wrote yesterday and the trend held up, the Brewers have owned the Mets. They’re now 10-1 in their last 11 meetings with New York, which includes a six-game winning streak. Here’s another interesting factoid: The Brewers were underdogs in all six of those games. Thus, it’s not as if Milwaukee was expected to beat New York during that stretch, the Brewers just have ownership of the Mets.
Jose Quintana has pitched well of late, but he also benefited from facing the Nationals, Reds and White Sox. Granted, he did hold the Phillies to no runs on three hits on September 13, but I’m still willing to back the Brewers at an inexpensive price.
Saturday MLB Best Bet: San Diego Padres (+135), 8:10 p.m. ET
The Diamondbacks have little margin for error as they battle three teams for the final two wild-card spots in the National League. They dropped the first game of this series and I envision them losing tonight as an underdog.
Eduardo Rodriguez has been dreadful this month and he’ll start for Arizona tonight. He’s 1-4 with a 6.00 ERA in September. That includes a start Monday against the Giants in which he allowed three home runs and five runs on seven hits over 4 2/3 innings. The Diamondbacks lost that game, 6-3.
Granted, Randy Vazquez hasn’t been much better. He allowed nine runs on 11 hits in the Padres’ 11-4 loss at the Rays on August 31, but that was the last time he pitched at the big league level. He has been in Triple-A El Paso and wasn’t very good in the minors, either (2-6 with an 8.64 ERA in his last 10 minor league starts).
Still, all the pressure is on the Diamondbacks. With the starting pitching matchup basically a wash, I’ll gladly take the better team, receiving plus odds, no less.
