Mariners Win Total Prediction
Having consistently wasted the royal efforts of their leader on the rubber, is this the year the Mariners finally reverse course in the American League West?
New general manager Jerry Dipoto certainly committed to overhauling the talent pool in the Pacific Northwest, if nothing else. More than 50 percent of the 40-man roster he inherited last September has been discarded in favor of greater athleticism (hello, Leonys Martin) and sturdier defense (welcome, Nori Aoki).
Will the fresh mix coalesce in time to prevent Seattle from extending its league-worst playoff drought to 15 seasons, though? Oddsmakers seem skeptical, with online sports book Bovada.lv setting the team’s over/under figure at 82.5 victories.
The 2015 edition of the M’s was supposed to bust out in a big way, but the Astros ended up snaring the lion’s share of the division’s headlines. Still, bright spots included the ageless Nelson Cruz’s 44-homer barrage and Robinson Cano’s second-half renaissance. Oh, and Felix Hernandez won his customary 15-plus starts.
Somewhat disturbingly, King Felix’s strikeouts dropped from 248 to 191. His ERA also rose to 3.53, the highest it’s been since 2007. If another “down” campaign yields an 18-9 record and 1.18 WHIP, however, first-time manager Scott Servais can deal. Hernandez remains the undisputed staff ace, the stopper when others such as Hisashi Iwakuma, Taijuan Walker and James Paxton occasionally falter.
While the rotation largely looks very familiar, Dipoto did opt to acquire Wade Miley from the Red Sox. The veteran righty rarely dazzles spectators from a pure stuff standpoint. Nonetheless, there’s something to be said about a guy who registers four consecutive years of 190-plus frames. In the event of a significant injury, Nathan Karns (7-5 as a rookie) offers a quality reinforcement.
On the same matter of health, the Safeco Field faithful would appreciate any and all good vibes floated in Cano’s direction. After hitting .251 with a .639 OPS through the first two months of last season, he racked up 19 homers and 63 RBIs over Seattle’s final 107 contests. Those numbers were produced despite a double hernia.
The perennial Silver Slugger requires assistance, though, and the club expects precisely that from Adam Lind. He probably won’t smash 20 dingers again, but plugging the former Milwaukee first baseman into a lineup that already includes Cano, Cruz and rising third baseman Kyle Seager should pay immediate dividends. Aoki (career .353 on-base percentage) and Martin (84 swipes since 2013) provide different elements, too, somewhat offsetting the putrid situation behind the plate. (No. 1 catcher Chris Iannetta is coming off a .188 average and .293 OBP.)
Unfortunately, questions abound in the bullpen. Steve Cishek failed to crack the Cardinals’ NLDS roster last October, and yet he’s penciled in to close games. Joaquin Benoit, 38, seems earmarked for setup duty. If that doesn’t enliven the Emerald City, what will?
In order to compete in a younger, hipper AL West, the Mariners need a lot of luck and decidedly fewer trips to the trainer’s room. The core of Hernandez, Cano and Cruz will cover many warts, but questionable depth cannot stay hidden forever.
2016 MLB WIN TOTAL PREDICTION: SEATTLE MARINERS UNDER 82.5 WINS
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