Will the Brewers rebound from its loss last night when it faces a struggling Mitch Keller? Will a game at Coors stay under the total? Can the Padres pull off another upset in their series against the Dodgers? Check out our Thursday MLB Best Bets.
Wednesday MLB Best Bets Recap
One theory I’ve had the last two days is to fade the team that just clinched a division. The Phillies clinched the NL East on Monday night so I faded them on Tuesday. Last night, I faded the Astros after they clinched the AL West and the Mariners eventually rolled to an 8-1 victory, cashing for us at -135 on the moneyline.
I also backed the red-hot Tigers, who handed the Rays a 7-1 beat down and finally, I followed the recent trends of the Royals and Nationals not being able to hit. After combing for one run in their game on Tuesday night, the Royals and Nationals combined for a whopping three runs last night. Detroit cashed, as did the Kansas City-Washington under, giving us our second straight 3-0 night.
While I’m 6-0 the last two days, I was struggling beforehand so I certainly won’t cherry pick. But things have turned around, so let’s keep the party going with another winning night on Thursday.
Thursday MLB Best Bets: Milwaukee Brewers -120
The Brewers fell 2-1 to the Pirates last night but I don’t see Milwaukee’s offense being held in check by Mitch Keller today. The veteran allowed a career-high eight runs in his last start and hasn’t won since August 20 at Texas. Since that point, he’s compiled a 6.93 ERA. Keller is also just 1-4 with a 5.44 ERA in eight career starts against the Brewers.
On the other side, the Brewers will counter with Aaron Civale, who is coming off a 5-0 loss to the Diamondbacks. He’s 1-2 with a 3.94 ERA in five career starts versus the Pirates and owns a 0-1 record against Pittsburgh in two starts this season. Despite the losing record versus the Bucs in 2024, Civale’s ERA is 1.59. He’s also pitched well at PNC Park, compiling a 1-0 record with a 1.86 ERA in three career starts.
Thursday MLB Best Bets: Cardinals/Rockies under 10.5
The Cardinals have played some average baseball this season, which is one of the reasons why their home attendance has never been lower. Their front office’s approach is tired at best and the organization could use a jolt of youthful energy and a new philosophy.
That aside, they’re also playing well to end the season. Apparently the roster is motivated to end the year on a high note, because the team has won seven out of its last 10 games. Today St. Louis will go for its fifth straight victory when it sends Kyle Gibson to the mound. He’s just 2-3 over his last five starts, but his ERA over that span is 3.68.
The Rockies will counter with Kyle Freeland, who is 3-2 with a 3.00 ERA. I know this game is at Coors Field, but the pitching matchup is good enough for this game to stay under.
Thursday MLB Best Bets: San Diego Padres +105
These two teams spilt the first two games of this series and I like San Diego to pull off the upset tonight at Dodger Stadium. Joe Musgrove will start for the Padres. He’s 3-2 with a 2.86 ERA over his last five starts. He has held opponents to zero runs in three of those five starts. Granted, he’s had his issues with the Dodgers. He faced him this season and allowed five runs on seven hits in just 2 2/3 innings. However, that start came on March 21 in South Korea, so there’s not much we can glean from that outing.
Walker Buehler, meanwhile, is 3-2 with a 4.85 ERA over his last five starts. He’s allowed at least two runs in every start over his last five outings. That includes his last outing in Colorado. In that game, Buehler allowed four runs on five hits over 5 1/3 innings. He faced the Padres on May 12 and surrendered three runs on five hits in just 3 1/3 innings.
