The Tigers vs. Astros Game 1 American League Wild Card Round matchup will kick off the MLB postseason on Tuesday afternoon. Which version of Framber Valdez will we see? The one that has dominated at times? Or the one that collapsed in the 2022 postseason?
Game Matchup & Betting Odds
Detroit Tigers (+125) at Houston Astros (-150); o/u 6.5
2:32 p.m. ET, Tuesday, October 1, 2024
Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX
Tigers vs. Astros Game 1: Bettors backing Houston
As of this writing, our MLB Public Betting Page shows that 58% of bets are on the Astros’ moneyline. That said, this page is updated frequently so make sure that you click on the link provided so that you’re getting the most updated information.
Skubal blanks Rays in final start
Tarik Skubal blanked the Rays for seven innings and struck out seven in the Tigers’ 2-1 victory last Tuesday. Skubal allowed just two hits and walked one in a game that wound up taking 1:59 to play. He could have given up 10 runs today and still won AL Cy Young honors, but it’s definitely great for the Tigers that he didn’t.
Alvarez should be able to hit
Astros manager Joe Espada told reporters that Yordan Alvarez (knee) will be able to hit Monday. Espada noted that he’s growing more optimistic that Alvarez will be able to work in the Wild Card series against the Tigers beginning Tuesday, but there are still some boxes to check off. The 27-year-old will likely DH in those games if he can play, but obviously the offensive prowess in his left-handed bat can make an impact from the designated hitter position.
Tigers vs. Astros Game 1 MLB Betting Trends
Detroit is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Detroit is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Houston is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Detroit
Houston is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Detroit
Tigers vs. Astros Game 1 MLB BETTING PREDICTION
This matchup is even. While Framber Valdez is 4-1 with a 1.36 ERA over his last five starts, Tarik Skubal is 3-2 with a 1.42 ERA over his last five outings. The numbers are similar for both pitcher when it comes to facing the current opposing roster, too.
Thus, I like the Tigers in the first five innings. Once we get deeper into the game, perhaps Houston’s postseason experience will take over. But in the first five innings, I believe Skubal will pitch well and keep the Tigers in the game. If the Valdez shows up from the 2022 MLB postseason, we’ll cash.
Tigers vs. Astros Game 1 MLB Playoffs Prediction: Tigers +110 (1st Five)