We’ve got day baseball on Wednesday! Here are my Top 3 MLB Best Bets for today, including why it’s safe to back the Marlins’ offense in Pittsburgh.
MLB Best Bets: Marlins over 3.5 Total Runs
The Pirates will start Bailey Falter today against Miami and he’s been dreadful of late. Don’t let his 3-2 record fool you: Over his last five starts, Falter has a 6.85 ERA. Over that span, he’s averaged 4 2/3 innings of work, 3.6 runs and seven hits. In those last five outings, he surrendered 4, 2, 5, 4 and 3 runs, respectively. That’s dreadful.
If you’re still concerned about Miami’s offense since it is the Marlins, keep in mind that they scored four runs last night in Pittsburgh. They were held to two runs on Monday night, but they also faced Paul Skenes. Throw that game out and they’ve scored at least four runs in their last three games. That includes 9- and 10-run outbursts versus the Phillies over the weekend.
But again, this is more about Falter and less about the Marlins.
MLB Best Bets: Blue Jays over 3.5 Runs (-128) Total Runs
Similar approach today in Toronto as in Pittsburgh: The Blue Jays should thrive against the opposing starter. The Mets will start Sean Manaea today in Toronto. He’s 5-0 with a 3.41 ERA over his last five starts, averaging 6 2/3 innings per contest. That said, dive deeper. He’s allowed at least one home run in four out of his last five outings, including multiple home runs against the Reds in his last start and two home runs three starts ago versus Arizona. He’s also allowed at least three runs in four out of his last five outings. The lone exception in both cases? His start against the White Sox, historically one of the worst teams in baseball this season.
Granted, the Blue Jays haven’t exactly been tearing the cover off the ball. They have scored three or fewer runs in four out of her last six games. That said, they scored six runs last night against Chris Bassitt last night and if they score at least three versus Manaea, I like them to tack on at least one more versus New York’s bullpen.
MLB Best Bets: Atlanta Braves over 4.5 (-104) Total Runs
One more team total I like on Wednesday is the Braves over 4.5 runs. My word has Jake Irvin been dreadful of late. In surrendered six runs to the Pirates in his last start on September 5 and seven runs to the Cubs on August 30. Over his last five outings, Irvin is 2-3 with a 7.00 ERA. Over that span, he’s coughed up six home runs and now faces one of the top offenses in baseball. Good luck, Jake!