Blue Jays vs. Orioles Pick
Even though the Orioles remain atop the AL East standings, the Blue Jays are in search of their fourth-straight win tonight at 7:05PM ET.
According to oddsmakers from online sports book BetDSI, the Orioles are -115 money line favorites over the Blue Jays, who have odds of +106 to pull off the small upset on the road. With R.A. Dickey set to face Ubaldo Jimenez in the pitching matchup, the total currently sits at 9 runs.
Bet Tonight’s Blue Jays vs. Orioles Game
This will be Dickey’s fourth start of the season. He’s 1-2 with a 6.75 ERA and has allowed 14 runs on 20 hits already this season, although only 11 of those runs are earned. When you dig deeper, you’ll see that he’s had some poor luck with balls in play. His BABIP is .388, which is much higher than the rough league average of .300 and his FIP (3.54) indicates that his ERA is somewhat bloated as well. He needs to cut down on the walks (4.91 BB/9), but his K/9 (9.20) and HR/9 (0.61) rates are both healthy.
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Jimenez, meanwhile, has been fantastic through his first two starts. He’s 1-1 with a 10.50 strikeout-per-nine rate and is allowing just 0.75 HR/9 himself. His ERA is 3.75, which isn’t bad, but his FIP is 2.82, which is a truer indication of how well he’s pitching. What’s most striking is his .406 BABIP, which indicates he’s been highly unlucky with balls in play and still has pitched well.
TODAY’S PICK: I like the under but can’t leave the Orioles at -115 with how well Jimenez has pitched through his two starts. His BABIP will come down and the fact that the Orioles are 16-5 in Jimenez’s last 21 home starts makes Baltimore even more attractive today. Plus, with Tony Randazzo behind the plate, the Orioles are in a good spot. The home team is 4-1 in Randazzo’s lat five games behind home plate in Baltimore and is 11-4 in his last 15 games behind home plate period.
TUESDAY MLB FREE PICK: BALTIMORE ORIOLES -115
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