Blue Jays vs. Orioles Prediction
After splitting the first two games of their series, the Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays will play the rubber match tonight at 7:05PM ET.
According to oddsmakers from online sports book BetDSI, Manny Machado the Orioles are -109 money line favorites over the visiting Blue Jays, who have odds of -101 to win once more in Baltimore. The total, meanwhile, sits at 9 runs with Marco Estrada set to face Chris Tillman in the pitching matchup.
Bet Tonight’s Blue Jays vs. Orioles Game
This will be Estrada’s third start of the season. In his 13.0 innings thus far, he’s allowed four runs on 13 hits with 11 strikeouts and three walks to go along with his 2.77 ERA. His FIP is a solid 3.05 and his HR/FB percentage is an excellent 5.9% despite pitching once in Toronto and once in Boston, two ballparks that don’t always suppress home runs.
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As for Tillman, he’ll be making his fourth start of the new season as he owns a 1-1 record and a 5.11 ERA. His 3.05 FIP and 3.94 xFIP indicate that his ERA is somewhat inflated at this point and both his strikeout rate (8.03) and HR/FB ratio (6.3%) are solid. In fact, with a .343 BABIP, his ERA should lower once he starts receiving a little more batted-ball luck.
OUR PREDICTION: This is about as even a matchup as you’ll get so there’s not a ton of value in taking a side. The total, however, seems a tad inflated given how competitive the pitching matchup should be. The under is 5-0-1 in Estrada’s last six road starts and 10-1 in his last 11 outings following a team loss in the previous game. The under is also 6-0-1 in the Orioles’ last seven home games and 7-2-1 in their last 10 contests versus a right-handed starter.
THURSDAY MLB FREE PICK: BLUE JAYS/ORIOLES UNDER 9
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