Will the Mets’ offense rebound after they were held in check by the Nationals last night? Will the Red Sox continue to own Tampa Bay pitching? Could the Blue Jays surprise tonight in Texas? Check out our Tuesday MLB Team Total Predictions.
Monday MLB Team Total Recap
I am strug-a-ling. I had the Mets over 4.5 runs (+114) and Washington held New York to 2. Also, I backed the Astros over 3.5 runs and the Padres held them to 1. My saving grace? The White Sox, of course. The worst team in baseball racked up 8 runs against the Angels to give me my lone victory yesterday.
I’m not going to do what other struggling free-pickers do and tell you to fade me. I’m going to fix it, starting tonight.
Monday MLB Team Total Prediction: Red Sox over 3.5 Runs (-150)
The over is juiced to -150 but I like Boston’s offense tonight despite the lack of value. Shane Baz has pitched well of late for Tampa Bay. He’s only 2-3 over his last five starts, but he’s averaged 6.0 innings per start over that span and owns a 2.32 ERA.
That said, there are issues when you pop the hood. In those last five starts, Baz has surrendered five home runs. He’s coughed up a long ball in each of his last three outings. This season, the Red Sox are averaging 1.24 home runs per game, which is the eighth-highest mark in baseball. Over their last three games, Boston is averaging a home run per contest and on the road, they’re averaging 1.39 long balls per game.
The Red Sox also love facing Rays’ pitching. These divisional rivals have played each other seven times this season and are averaging 4.85 runs per game. They’ve scored at least four runs against the Rays in five of the last six meetings between these two teams.
Monday MLB Team Total Prediction: New York Mets over 4.5 Runs (+122)
We’re getting more value with the Mets than we are with the Red Sox, but we’ll need one more run with New York than Boston. I don’t know what happened last night with the Mets, but they’ve owned the Nationals’ pitching so I don’t mind going back to the well tonight. In the last 10 meetings between these two rivals, the Mets scored five or more runs eight times.
Granted, Mitchell Park has pitched well for Washington of late. He owns a 3.38 ERA over his last five starts, holding opponents to 2.6 runs per outing over that span. Still, in two of his last three starts, he allowed four runs. If we get four runs out of the Mets before Park exits the game, I feel confident that New York will get to Washington’s bullpen this time around.
Monday MLB Team Total Prediction: Blue Jays over 3.5 Runs (-122)
The Blue Jays are like riding a roller coaster that you know you won’t like but you do it anyway because you think it might be fun at some point. They should score at least four runs tonight versus Texas. They faced the Rangers three times in July and scored 6, 7 and 7 runs, respectively. Even though they’re facing Nathan Eovaldi tonight in Texas, the Rangers’ starter allowed four runs versus the Diamondbacks in his last start. In that loss, he coughed up three home runs and he’s now allowed four long balls in his last two starts.