Nationals vs. Marlins Prediction
The Washington Nationals will send their ace to the mound today in search of a series win over the Miami Marlins at 1:10PM ET.
According to oddsmakers from online sports book Bovada.lv, the Nationals are -175 money line favorites over the host Marlins, who have +155 odds to pull off the upset at home. With Max Scherzer set to face Tom Koehler in the pitching matchup, the over/under currently sits at 7 runs.
Bet Today’s Nationals vs. Marlins Game
Scherzer is 2-0 on the new season and has posted a 3.15 ERA through 20 innings of work. His 3.15 FIP and 3.59 xFIP suggest he hasn’t pitched as well as his ERA would indicate and his BABIP is .224, which means he’s received some good batted-ball fortunate. But his strikeout rate of 9.00 is great and there’s nothing alarming about his walk rate (2.70) to this point.
Koehler, meanwhile, is 0-2 on the year and despite posting a 6.30 ERA, his FIP is only 3.45, which means he’s been more average than awful. His biggest issues are his strikeout (6.30) and walk (5.40) rates, which go along with his un-lucky .447 BABIP number. Thus, plenty of batters are reaching base and he’s only stranding them at a 65.2% clip. While he should receive better luck over his next few starts, his strikeout and walk rates speak for themselves.
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OUR PREDICTION: The Nationals should win but there’s more value for bettors in the over, which is 6-1-3 in Scherzer’s last 10 starts following a quality start in his last appearance. The over is also 4-1 in the Nats’ last five contests during Game 4 of a series and 7-2 in the Marlins’ last nine games following a loss. Bryce Harper and the rest of Washington’s lineup should knock around Koehler and if Scherzer’s BABIP is due to rise, then the Marlins should contribute to the combined score going over.
THURSDAY MLB FREE PICK: NATIONALS/MARLINS OVER 7
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