Will the Tigers and Astros’ bats show up in Game 2? Can the Brewers stave off elimination versus the Mets? Will the Royals and Orioles continue to struggle offensively? Check out our Wednesday MLB Best Bets.
Tuesday MLB Best Bets Recap
Since I did individual selections for all four of the MLB postseason games yesterday, I didn’t have a Best Bets column. That said, I did have the correct side in the Tigers-Astros matchup, siding with Detroit in the first five innings as a +110 moneyline underdog. I was happy for Detroit fans that the Tigers held on for a win. That said, it was nice knowing I already cashed by the time the Tigers faced trouble in the bottom of the ninth.
I did whiff, however, on the Orioles as a -150 moneyline favorite versus the Royals. In the article, I noted how poorly Kansas City’s offense has performed of late, but I didn’t have the church bells to take the under 6.5 for the game and it cost me.
I did rebound, however, by backing the Mets (+125) over the Brewers. I also had the under 7 in the Braves-Padres game, which resulted in a 4-0 San Diego victory. Thus, even though my lone loss was an expensive one, I’ll take a 3-1 day with two teams cashing with plus odds.
Wednesday MLB Best Bet: Tigers/Astros over 7.5, 2:32PM ET
I think these two teams are going to mash today, or at least one team will. Chances are that team will be the Astros, who are starting Hunter Brown. In five career games (four starts) versus Detroit, Brown is 3-0 with a 2.93 ERA. That said, he’s also making his first postseason start, which is a different animal.
Meanwhile, the Tigers will use an opener today in Tyler Holton. The Tigers’ bullpen has been a strength of theirs, but the Astros are back to full strength offensively, which includes Yordan Alvarez, who had two hits in Game 1.
Something tells me we’re about to see one of those big hitting displays by the Astros.
Wednesday MLB Best Bet: Royals/Orioles under 7.5, 4:38 p.m. ET
My colleague Alex Becker is recommending the Royals as an underdog on the moneyline for this game and I highly encourage you to check out his write up of this game when you have a moment.
As previously mentioned, the Royals haven’t hit the board side of a barn in several weeks. Including their 1-0 win over the Orioles yesterday, they’ve now been held to four or fewer runs in nine of their last 10 games. They’ve been held to three or fewer runs in eight of their last 10 games. Kansas City has also been held to two or fewer runs in seven of their last 10 games. They’re just not hitting, but they are pitching well.
Seth Lugo will take the mound today for the Royals and he owns a 2.28 ERA over his last five starts. The Orioles were counter with Zach Eflin, who has also been impressive. He’s 3-2 with a 3.00 ERA over his last five outings.
After watching these two teams struggle offensively yesterday, I knew I should have taken the under in Game 1. I’ll rectify that mistake today.
Wednesday MLB Best Bet: New York Mets (+100), 7:38 p.m. ET
It’s the postseason, which means it’s time to fade the Brewers. With their 8-4 loss to the Mets in Game 1 yesterday, Milwaukee has now lost six consecutive postseason games. The Brewers are also 1-10 in playoff games dating back to a loss against the Dodgers in Game 7 of the 2018 NLCS.
I don’t like their chances of ending their postseason losing skid tonight. Their starter, Frankie Montas, has a 5.55 ERA over his last five starts. Over that span, he has allowed an average of 3.6 hits and 3.0 earned runs across just 4 2/3 innings of work.
The Mets, meanwhile, will counter with Sean Manaea, who is 4-1 with a 4.06 ERA over his last five outings. He’s averaging 6.0 innings pitched over that span, as well as 4.0 hits allowed and 2.8 earned runs.
New York is hot. Milwaukee has stunk in the postseason. Give me the underdog.