Have you ever felt that pundits, fellow bettors or even you is often wrong in the betting sphere? Try the contrarian method. Here are our top 3 Monday MLB Contrarian Bets ahead of today’s baseball slate.
The contrarian method isn’t about simply fading the public, but fading the public when it makes sense. What we’re referring to when we say “fade the public,” is looking at the public betting percentages, seeing which side public bettors are on and taking the other team.
That doesn’t mean to fade the most popular teams, because in baseball that often means fading heavy favorites. That’s a risky proposition. Instead, let’s take a look at teams that bettors might be overlooking that still give us a decent percentage to win the game.
Wednesday MLB Top 3 Contrarian Bets: Minnesota Twins +106
As of Monday morning, 68% of the betting public is backing the Guardians ahead of tonight’s 6:40 p.m. ET matchup from Progressive Field. It makes sense. The Guardians won seven of their previous 10 meetings versus the Twins, including four out of the last five in Cleveland.
That said, there isn’t a big advantage in tonight’s pitching matchup. Bailey Ober is 1-4 with a 5.86 ERA over his last five starts for Minnesota. Those numbers are jarring, but Tanner Bibee is just 2-3 with a 4.88 ERA for Cleveland. That’s better, but not still not great. Plus, Bibee is coming off an outing versus the Rays in which he allowed three runs on eight hits, two of which left the yard. He’s now surrendered six home runs over his last four starts.
After the Twins won last night in Cleveland, backing Minnesota tonight is a sound contrarian bet.
Wednesday MLB Top 3 Contrarian Bets: Boston Red Sox +100
If you shop around, you can find Boston receiving plus odds. The Red Sox are coming off a loss at Tropicana Field last night, which is probably one of the reasons public bettors are fading Boston tonight. Another reason could be that Tanner Houck, who starts tonight for Boston, is just 1-4 with a 4.25 ERA over his last five starts.
That said, Houck has fared well versus the current Tampa Bay roster. The current Rays roster has 65 plate appearances versus Houck, who owns a 29.2% strikeout rate versus that group. Not one Tampa Bay player has taken Houck deep and only two hitters – Jonathan Arnada and Junior Caminero – have extra base hits versus the right-hander.
Meanwhile, Ryan Pepiot will start for the Rays and while he’s 3-2 with a 4.03 ERA, he’s averaging just 4 1/3 innings over his last five starts. He’s coming off a start versus Cleveland in which he allowed two runs on four hits in just two innings.
Personally, I think Boston should be a slight favorite in this game. With public bettors backing the Rays and the Red Sox receiving plus odds, I’ll gladly take Boston as a contrarian play.
Wednesday MLB Top 3 Contrarian Bets: Toronto Blue Jays +106
Following their 13-8 loss to the Rangers last night, the Blue Jays are now 3-7 over their last 10 games versus Texas. However, Toronto had won three in a row versus Texas before last night’s loss. Given the pitching matchup, I like the Jays to rebound tonight.
Bowden Francis is 3-2 with a 1.25 ERA over his last five starts. Over that span, he’s averaging 7.0 innings of work, 2.4 hits and 1.0 runs allowed per start. He carried a no-hitter into the ninth inning versus the Mets in his last start on September 11, before allowing a home run to spoil his outing.
Meanwhile, Cody Bradford is just 2-3 with a 4.55 ERA ove rhis lats five outings. Unlike Francis, Bradford’s last start was a disaster. He surrendered eight runs – all earned – on nine hits in a 14-4 loss to the Diamondbacks in Arlington.
With over 70% of the wagers currently on Texas, the Blue Jays are my final contrarian play of the evening.
