Cardinals vs. Reds Pick
Are the St. Louis Cardinals going to roll to a victory Wednesday night at 7:10PM EST versus the host Cincinnati Reds?
According to oddsmakers at Bovada.lv, the Cardinals are a -188 favorite to win on the moneyline. The Reds are a +163 underdog and the over-under is set at 9.5. St. Louis is -115 to win on the -1.5 run line, while Cincinnati is -105 on the +105 run line.
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Pitching for the Cardinals will be Luke Weaver (6-1, 1.89 ERA), while the Reds counter with Rookie Davis (1-2, 7.71). Weaver has a 1.03 WHIP with 58 strikeouts over 47 2/3 innings. He allowed one unearned run on two hits with six strikeouts and no walks over six innings in a 5-2 home win over Cincinnati his last outing. Weaver has a 2.71 ERA in 21 road innings. St. Louis has won his last seven starts. Davis carries a 2.24 WHIP with 17 strikeouts in 21 innings. Davis pitched for the first time in an MLB game since May on September 12 as he gave up two earned runs on four hits with two strikeouts and a walk over two innings in a 13-4 loss at the Cardinals. Davis has a 5.84 ERA in 12 1/3 innings pitched at home.
The Cardinals have a 78-72 record and are 36-40 on the road, while the Reds are 66-95 and 39-37 at home. St. Louis has won six of the last 10 meetings and the over-under is 5-5 in those games.
On Tuesday night, the Cardinals claimed an 8-7 win in 10 innings. Dexter Fowler hit a game-tying home run in the eighth inning and a go-ahead double in the 10th inning to lead the way. Fowler finished 3-for-4 with three runs and a walk. Yadier Molina contributed a three-run homer. Paul DeJong was 2-for-5 with a home run and two RBIs. Juan Nicasio earned the win in relief, while Tyler Lyons earned his third save. Jesse Winker went 2-for-5 with a double and two runs for the Reds. Zach Cozart went 2-for-5 with a home run and two RBIs. Joey Votto was 1-for-3 with a run, an RBI and two walks. Scooter Gennett finished 2-for-5 with a home run, a double and two runs. Tim Adleman took the loss in relief.
Weaver has been simply dominant and he looks like he might be the real deal. His strikeout rate is high, he gives up soft contact and his peripherals are strong across the board. It’s starting to make its way out of sample size territory and into legitimacy. Conversely, although Davis does have a small sample size it’s clear he isn’t ready to consistently mow down MLB hitters. Anything can happen in baseball, but this one seems like a mismatch.
MLB DAILY PREDICTION: ST. LOUIS CARDINALS RL -115