Marlins Win Total Prediction
After a very difficult end to 2016, can the Miami Marlins regroup and turn 2017 into an uplifting story?
According to oddsmakers at BetDSI, the Marlins over/under for wins in 2017 has been set at 76.5. The over has odds of +105 while the under sits at -135. Their odds to win the 2017 World Series are listed at 100/1 currently, while their odds to win the NLCS are at 50/1.
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Coming off a 79-82 record in 2016, the Marlins were dealt a heavy and emotional blow late in the season when star pitcher Jose Fernandez was killed in a boating accident. The young pitcher had been one of the best in MLB over recent years and was 16-8 in 2016 with a 2.86 ERA and 253 strikeouts with only 55 walks in 182 innings of work. Don Mattingly returns for the Marlins to try and pick up the pieces of a difficult end to last season.
The loss of Fernandez completely changes the look of the pitching staff. Tom Koehler returns after a 9-13 season where he had a 4.33 ERA. He is the top returning arm in terms of innings pitched and wins. Adam Conley and Wei-Yin Chen also were regular starters that are back from last season. Conley went 8-6 with a 3.85 ERA. The Marlins added Jeff Locke, Edinson Volquez and Dan Straily in the offseason. Locke will miss the first month with an injury and coming off a 2016 where he had a 5.44 ERA. Straily was much better, going 14-8 with a 3.76 ERA for the Reds. Volquez took a big step back last season, posting a 5.37 ERA for the Royals while going 10-11 on the mound. One strength for Miami will be A.J. Ramos in the closer role. He had a career-high 40 saves last season with a 2.81 ERA.
At the plate, the Marlins will need improved numbers. They had just 655 a year ago, which was fourth-fewest in the majors. The team fired hitting coach Barry Bonds in the offseason. Giancarlo Stanton battled injuries again, playing in just 119 games. He had 27 HR, 74 RBI and a .240 average in 2016. Christian Yelich actually let the team at the plate with a .298 average, 21 HR and 98 RBI. Marcell Ozuna and Martin Prado also had over 70 RBI each. Prado had 37 doubles and hit .305 while Ozuna had 23 HR. One boost for Miami is Dee Gordon returning. He missed 80 games last season due to a suspension but still had 30 stolen bases and 47 runs in 79 games played in 2016.
If the Marlins could stay healthy on offense, they could actually have something. Stanton has been tremendous and Gordon has some real talent. They have some other nice pieces as well, but they just don’t seem to be able to stay on the field for one reason or another. The pitching staff will obviously take a step back. Fernandez was a once-in-a-franchise type arm. He can’t be replaced. That lack of a clear ace that can right the ship will keep Miami from being able to compete for a playoff spot. Their lineup isn’t improving enough to make up for the drop their pitching will take.
2017 MLB SEASON WIN TOTAL PREDICTION: MIAMI MARLINS UNDER 76.5