The Yankees are the current favorites to win the American League Pennant. That said, following the MLB All-Star Break, is the wrong team favored to win this year’s pennant?
American League Pennant Odds
As previously mentioned, the Yankees are the current favorites at +240, followed by the Orioles at +300. The Twins are +650 to win the AL Pennant, followed by the Guardians at +700 and the Astros at +800. The Mariners, meanwhile, are +900.
From there, the odds drop off significantly. The Red Sox are +1600 to win the American League Pennant, followed by the Royals at +2500. The defending World Series champion Rangers are +3000, while the Rays are +8000. The Tigers are +12000, followed by the Blue Jays at +15000.
The teams that currently have the worst odds to win the American League Pennant are the Angels, A’s and White Sox at +20000, respectively.
American League Current Standings
At the MLB All-Star Break, the Guardians have the best winning percentage in the American League at .611. The Orioles, meanwhile, own a .604 winning percentage, followed by the Yankees at .592. The Twins, meanwhile, have a winning percentage of .563, followed by the Red Sox at .559 and the Royals at .536.
Continuing with the winning percentages, the Mariners have a winning percentage of .531, followed by the Astros at .521. At 48-48, the Rays are the only team in the American League with a .500 record, while the Tigers are three games below .500 at 47-50. The defending World Series champion Rangers are just 46-50 (.479).
American League Pennant Predictions
If we’re going to make an educated prediction on which team will win the American League Pennant, let’s start by eliminating teams.
The White Sox, A’s and Angels are some of the worst teams in baseball, so let’s chuck those squads. The Blue Jays are 9.5 games back of a wild card spot and will likely sell at the trade deadline, so we can eliminate Toronto from consideration as well. The same can be said for the Rangers and Tigers. At 5.5 games back of the wild card and owning a -63 run differential, I feel good about eliminating the Rays, too.
That leaves us with the Guardians, Orioles, Yankees, Twins, Red Sox, Royals, Mariners and Astros. I’m a big believer in pitching and defense in October. Some of the best offenses in baseball don’t win playoff series because they don’t have the pitching or commit too many mistakes defensively. It’s about pitching when the postseason arrives.
The Mariners own the lowest ERA in the AL at 3.46, followed by the Yankees at .356 and the Red Sox at 3.61. The Orioles and Guardians each have respectable 3.71 ERAs, respectively, while the Royals own a 3.80 ERA. The Astros and Twins’ ERA are fine, but we’re looking for reasons to eliminate teams so let’s chuck them. Believe it or not, I’m going to do the same with the Yankees, whose 4.11 FIP suggests that their 3.56 ERA is not sustainable.
Switching to offense now, here are the wRC+ figures for the teams that we have not eliminated: Orioles (116), Guardians (105), Red Sox (104), Royals (95) and Mariners (95). Since 100 is average for this metric, let’s eliminate the Royals and Mariners since they’re five percentage points below average offensively. Thus, that leaves us with the Orioles, Guardians and Red Sox.
Finally, I don’t trust Boston to make the moves necessary at the deadline to separate the Red Sox from the rest of the pack. I feel the same about Cleveland, which is often quiet at the deadline outside of a couple of moves that would be described as “adding depth.”
So give me the Orioles. At +300, their odds aren’t as sexy as the other teams above, so if you want to take the Guardians at +700 or even the Mariners at +900 since Seattle could make some moves to address its offense, I won’t fault you. But the Orioles have the best combination of pitching, defense and offense, plus their front office figures to add help at the deadline.
American League Pennant Prediction: Baltimore Orioles +300
