Cook Out Southern 500 Predictions
NASCAR begins its postseason in one of its crown-jewel events: the Southern 500 at Darlington. With Sunday night’s race set to start at 6:15 p.m. ET, which drivers make the most sense to back from a betting standpoint tonight in Darlington?
Cook Out Southern 500 Event Details
What: Cook Out Southern 500
Where: Darlington Raceway
When: 6:15 p.m. ET, Sunday, September 3, 2023
Watch: USA
Cook Out Southern 500 Betting Odds
Kyle Larson is the current favorite at +450, although Denny Hamlin is +500, Christopher Bell is +550 and Martin Truex Jr. is +600. The odds fall off a bit from there, with Tyler Reddick listed at +1000 to win the Cook Out Southern 500, followed by Kyle Busch at +1200. Brad Keselowski and William Byron are both +1400, respectively, while Ross Chastain and Ryan Blaney are +1600, respectively.
Continuing with the odds, Kevin Harvick is +1800, Joey Logano and Chris Buescher is +2500, respectively, while Bubba Wallace and Chase Elliott are +3000, respectively. Erik Jones and Ty Gibbs, meanwhile, is +5000, respectively.
Cook Out Southern 500 Predictions
OPTION 1: Kevin Harvick (+1800)
Since February 2020, only Harvick and Hamlin have posted multiple victories at Darlington with two apiece. In eight career races at Darlington, nobody has a lower average finish than Harvick at 6.9 and his six top-5 finishes is the highest among active drivers over that span. He also has seven top-10 finishes at Darlington since February of 2020 and his overall driving rating is a 103.2, which ranks behind only Truex Jr. (111.9) and Hamlin (107.8) over that span.
OPTION 2: Denny Hamlin (+500)
You didn’t think I would list all those positive stats about Hamlin in the Harvick section and not make him an option, did you? Hamlin doesn’t offer the same betting value as Harvick but given how well he has fared at Darlington since 2020, he should be in the mix tonight. His 7.5 average finish ranks second to only Harvick’s 6.9 mark since February 2020 and as previously mentioned, he and Harvick are the drivers to have won multiple times at Darlington over that span. Hamlin also has five top-5 finishes, five top-10 finishes and an average rating of 107.8, which ranks second to only Truex Jr.’s 111.9 at Darlington.
OPTION 3: Joey Logano (+2500)
Logano isn’t a massive long shot but his +2500 odds make him a sweet spot option in my eyes. In eight races since February 2020, Logano has one win, three top-5 finishes and five top-10s at Darlington, for an average finish of 8.9. Only Harvick (6.9) and Hamlin (7.5) have lower average finishes at Darlington over that span and only Truex Jr. (111.9), Hamlin (107.8) and Harvick (103.2) have higher average ratings than Logano’s 101.0 at Darlington over that timeframe. Logano also seems to be embracing the playoff underdog role and I think he could surprise tonight at a track he has fared well on in previous years.