Spurs-Mavericks Picks
A Texas-sized battle will take place in the first round of the 2010 NBA Playoffs when the San Antonio Spurs lock horns with the Dallas Mavericks. We take a look at the series and offer our free pick.
After compiling a 55-27 record during the regular season, the Mavs secured the second seed in the Western Conference. They were as equally good on the road (27-14) as they were at home (28-13), making them a tough out in a seven game series.
The Spurs are usually accustomed to finishing among the top four teams in the West, but had to settle for the seventh seed after finishing 50-32 on the year. They were solid at home while posting a 29-12 record, but they finished just one game above .500 on the road this season at 21-20.
Oddsmakers from online sports book SPORTSBETTING.com have made the Mavericks –165 money line favorites over the Spurs in the teams’ best of seven series. San Antonio, meanwhile, is +135 money line underdogs against Dallas.
Records can sometimes be deceiving and this is one of those times. While Dallas is 23-7 since trading for Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood, that record is a little misleading. The Mavs played the second-easiest schedule over the final quarter of the season, including 12 of 21 games against lottery teams and two others against the struggling Bulls and the Spurs’ backups.
Conversely, the Spurs sported one of the NBA’s most difficult schedules over the final quarter of the season and ran through it with relative ease. They racked up wins against powerhouses like the Lakers and Cavs, as well as the highly respectable, Magic, Nuggets, Celtics and Thunder. Eleven of San Antonio’s final 17 games came against teams that won 50 games.
The veteran core of Tim Duncan, Tony Parker (when healthy), Manu Ginobili and Richard Jefferson has gotten hot at the right time. There’s no doubt that the Spurs will have their hands full with Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Terry, Butler, Shawn Marion and Jason Kidd. But at +135 on the money line, we think they’re the bargain of the Western Conference and believe they’ll advance after a knock-‘em-down, drag-‘em-out fight with Dallas.
Our NBA Playoff Series Free Pick for this matchup is: SAN ANTONIO SPURS +135
(Note: This free pick is for the entire seven game series and is not to be confused with our daily NBA picks, which are for individual games.)
Top Trends for this game.
SAN ANTONIO is 10-24 ATS (-16.4 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 178-138 ATS (+26.2 Units) vs. division opponents since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 237-192 ATS (+25.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record – 2nd half of the season since 1996.
DALLAS is 36-44 ATS (-12.4 Units) in all games this season.
DALLAS is 24-34 ATS (-13.4 Units) as a favorite this season.
DALLAS is 10-29 ATS (-21.9 Units) in home games this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 10-6 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 10-7 straight up against SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
9 of 17 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO
[G] 04/16/2010 – Malik Hairston missed last game, doubtful Sunday vs. Dallas
[G] 04/15/2010 – George Hill injured last game, "?" Sunday vs. Dallas (Ankle)
DALLAS
[F] 02/16/2010 – Tim Thomas out indefinitely ( Personal )
San Antonio Spurs (Series Price) +135
Dallas Mavericks (Series Price) -165
Posted: 4/18/10 12:00PM ET