2011 NBA Finals Game 4 Prediction
(The Spread) – After dropping Game 3 on Sunday, the Mavericks look to even things up in the 2011 NBA Finals when they host the Heat tonight.
Oddsmakers from online sports book Bodog currently list the Mavericks as 3-point favorites over the Heat for tonight’s 9:00PM ET tip off. The over/under total for this game is currently listed at 186.5 points.
Dallas actually opened as a 2.5-point favorite but line movement reports show that the point spread has gone up. That said, of the 5,100-plus wagers on tonight’s game, 56% of NBA public bettors favor the Heat +3, so those odds could move back down the closer we get to tip off.
NBA Finals Free Pick: I like Dallas to even things up tonight, although if you’re also on the Mavs I would wait until closer to tip off. The public is on the star-studded Heat so the line may drop to 2.5 if you wait long enough. (I don’t think the line will go higher than it is right now at –3.) According to latest NBA trends, the Mavs are 9-3 against the spread in their last 12 home games and 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games overall. They’re also 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a straight up loss, while the Heat are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 playoff games as an underdog. My only concern is that somebody outside of Dirk Nowitzki has to step up for the Mavericks on the offensively side of the ball. Dallas is a completely differently team when Dirk comes off the floor, so whether it’s Jason Terry, Shawn Marion or freaking Peja Stojakovic, the Mavs need someone else to step up offensively. Either that, or Dirk is going to have to continue his perfect play throughout this postseason (which he’s certainly capable of doing). Either way, I still like Dallas tonight.
2011 NBA FINALS GAME 4 FREE PICK: DALLAS MAVERICKS –3
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