Bucks vs. Heat Prediction & Odds
The top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks travel to Miami to take on the #8-seed Heat on ESPN Saturday night at 7:30 PM ET in Game 3 of the first round of the NBA Playoffs.
Can the Heat cover the 4.5-point spread as home underdogs?
The series is tied 1-1.
The Milwaukee Bucks went 58-24 in the regular season. They are 1-1 in the playoffs this season. The Bucks are 44-34-6 ATS on the year.
The Miami Heat went 44-38 in the regular season. They’re 2-2 in the play-in and playoffs this season. The Heat are 32-51-3 ATS on the year.
Game Matchup & Betting Odds
567 Milwaukee Bucks (-4.5) at 568 Miami Heat (+4.5); O/U 220.5
7:30 PM ET, Saturday, April 22, 2023
Kaseya Center, Miami, FL
Bucks vs. Heat Public Betting Information
Our NBA Public Betting Information page indicates that 84% of public bettors are currently backing the Bucks -4.5 in this contest. Note that these numbers are subject to change, so be sure to check the link to receive the most up-to-date public betting data.
Milwaukee Bucks DFS Spin
Bucks superstar power forward Giannis Antetokounmpo is officially listed as questionable for Saturday’s game against the Heat with a lower back contusion. Antetokounmpo missed Milwaukee’s 138-122 Game 2 win at home over Miami on Wednesday. Giannis averaged 29.9 points and 11.6 rebounds per game for the Bucks in the regular season.
If Giannis Antetokounmpo is unable to play for Milwaukee, Bucks forward Bobby Portis will likely take his place in the starting lineup. In three playoff games, Portis is averaging 17 points, 11.5 rebounds, 1 block, and 1.5 made three-pointers per game. Portis has DFS value due to his counting stats and his high shooting percentages both from the field (49.6%) and the three-point line (37%) during the regular season.
Miami Heat DFS Spin
Miami point guard Tyler Herro will miss Saturday’s game with a broken right hand he suffered while trying to grab a loose ball in Game 1 of this series. Herro averaged 20.1 points per game for the Heat in the regular season. Heat point guard Kyle Lowry is officially listed as questionable for Saturday’s game with a knee injury. Lowry has played in both games in this series, albeit in limited minutes (18.5 per game).
Heat small forward Jimmy Butler likely needs to have a big night if Miami is going to win or cover on Saturday. He’s putting up 30 points, 4 rebounds, 7 assists, and 2.5 steals per game in the playoffs thus far and may be in for a big scoring output at home (where his numbers are better) against the Bucks on Saturday.
Bucks vs. Heat NBA Betting Trends
Milwaukee is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 first-round playoff games.
Milwaukee is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 2 days’ rest.
Miami is 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games playing on 2 days’ rest.
Miami is 9-19 ATS in their last 28 games after allowing more than 100 points in their previous game.
Bucks vs. Heat NBA Prediction
The Bucks seem to have righted the ship with their big win over the Heat on Wednesday without Giannis. Because of that, I’d still like the Bucks even if Giannis Antetokounmpo doesn’t play. Milwaukee has been good on the road this season. The Bucks are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games against a team with a winning home record.
Miami has had trouble bouncing back after allowing a lot of points and losing by double digits this year. To wit, the Heat are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games following an outright loss of more than 10 points, and Miami is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game. Miami has struggled in general against the spread all season, and I think that trend continues on Saturday. I’ll lay the points with the Bucks on the road.
NBA BETTING PREDICTION: MILWAUKEE BUCKS -4.5