Heat vs. Bucks Prediction & Odds
The eighth-seeded Miami Heat head to Milwaukee to take on the top-seeded Bucks on TNT Sunday evening at 5:30 PM ET in the first round of the NBA Playoffs.
Can the Bucks cover the 9.5-point spread as home favorites?
The Miami Heat are 45-39 on the season. They are 5-5 in their last 10 games. The Heat are 31-50-3 ATS on the year.
The Milwaukee Bucks are 58-24 on the season. They’re 6-4 in their last 10 games. The Bucks are 43-33-6 ATS on the year.
Game Matchup & Betting Odds
511 Miami Heat (+9.5) at 512 Milwaukee Bucks (-9.5); O/U 218.5
5:30 PM ET, Sunday, April 16, 2023
Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI
Heat vs. Bucks Public Betting Information
Our NBA Public Betting Information page indicates that 76% of public bettors are currently backing the Bucks -9.5 in this contest. Note that these numbers are subject to change, so be sure to check the link to receive the most up-to-date public betting data.
Miami Heat DFS Spin
Miami point guards Kyle Lowry and Gabe Vincent are both questionable for Sunday’s game against Milwaukee. Lowry has a knee injury and Vincent is nursing a hip injury. The pair have combined to average 20.6 points per game for the Heat this season.
Miami shooting guard Max Strus went off in the Heat’s 102-91 play-in game win over Chicago on Friday. Strus poured in 31 points and sank 7 of 12 three-point tries while shooting 50% from the field. Strus shot 35% from deep this season on 7 attempts per game, and he may get some open shots if Milwaukee hides a lesser defender on him. Strus’s shooting ability could make him a cost-effective option at shooting guard in DFS on Sunday.
Milwaukee Bucks DFS Spin
The Milwaukee Bucks have a clean injury report for Sunday’s game against the Miami Heat. Wings Khris Middleton, Grayson Allen, and Pat Connaughton will all be good to go for the start of the first round on Sunday.
Milwaukee’s Bobby Portis has been getting some Sixth Man of the Year Award buzz and for good reason. The 6’10” Arkansas alum is putting up 14.1 points and 9.5 rebounds per game while shooting 49.6% from the field and 37% from beyond the arc this season. He’s averaging 15 points per game in three games against the Heat this year, and shouldn’t have much trouble scoring in double figures again on Sunday.
Heat vs. Bucks NBA Betting Trends
Miami is 6-27-1 ATS in their last 34 games following an ATS win.
Miami is 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following an outright win of more than 10 points.
Milwaukee is 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 first-round playoff games.
Milwaukee is 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games following an ATS loss.
Heat vs. Bucks NBA Prediction
Milwaukee has been one of the best teams in the NBA all season straight up and against the spread. The Bucks were 58-24 straight-up this year, which was good for the best record in the league. Milwaukee was 43-33-6 ATS this season, a mark which ranked sixth in the NBA. The Bucks were 23-15-2 as home favorites this year, a figure that ranked 6th in the league.
Miami was the second-worst team in the entire league against the spread this season at 31-50-3. They are the only team with 50 ATS losses this season. The majority of the Heat’s struggles have come on the road as they are only 15-24-1 ATS away from Miami this year, which is the fifth-worst mark in the league. The Bucks have been the best team in the NBA when healthy this season, and they’ll have everyone rearing and ready to go for this game. I’ll lay the points with Milwaukee at home.
NBA BETTING PREDICTION: MILWAUKEE BUCKS -9.5
