Heat vs. Celtics Prediction & Odds
The eighth-seeded Miami Heat head back to Boston to take on the 2nd-seeded Celtics on TNT Thursday night at 8:30 PM ET in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals in the 2023 NBA Playoffs.
Can the Celtics cover the 8.5-point spread as home favorites?
Miami leads the series 3-1.
The Miami Heat went 44-38 in the regular season. They are 12-5 in the play-in and playoffs this year. The Heat are 42-54-3 ATS on the season.
The Boston Celtics went 57-25 in the regular season. They are 9-8 in the playoffs so far. The Celtics are 55-44 ATS on the year.
Game Matchup & Betting Odds
549 Miami Heat (+8.5) at 550 Boston Celtics (-8.5); O/U 215.5
8:30 PM ET, Thursday, May 25, 2023
TD Garden, Boston, MA
Heat vs. Celtics Public Betting Information
Our NBA Public Betting Information page indicates that 85% of public bettors are currently backing the Heat +8.5 in this contest. Note that these numbers are subject to change, so be sure to check the link to receive the most up-to-date public betting data.
Miami Heat DFS Spin
Miami guards Victor Oladipo and Tyler Herro will both be out for Thursday’s Game 5 in Boston. Oladipo has a season-ending knee injury and Herro is still working his way back from a broken right hand. Miami guard Gabe Vincent is listed as questionable for Game 5 with a sprained left ankle he suffered in Game 4 on Tuesday. Vincent is third on Miami in scoring with 13.1 points per game in the playoffs this season.
If Gabe Vincent can’t play or is limited, Miami point guard Kyle Lowry could gain some DFS value. Lowry scored 15 points in Game 1 of this series in Boston and he has a lot playoff experience that could come in handy in a potential road elimination game on Thursday. Lowry is averaging 9.2 points, 4.5 assists, 1.1 steals, and 1.3 made three-pointers per game in these playoffs.
Boston Celtics DFS Spin
Boston point guard and 2023 NBA Sixth Man of the Year Malcolm Brogdon has been playing with a partially torn tendon in his right elbow in this series. The injury occurred in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals and may explain his shooting woes (35.3% from the field and 21.4% from deep in this series) in this series.
The injury to Brogdon could mean more minutes for Boston point guard Derrick White. White poured in 16 points on 5 of 10 shooting in Boston’s 116-99 Game 4 win on Tuesday, and he could have some DFS value as the Celtics attempt to stave off elimination at home in Game 5.
Heat vs. Celtics NBA Betting Trends
Miami is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss.
Miami is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall.
Boston is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS win.
Boston is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Heat vs. Celtics NBA Prediction
I don’t trust this Celtics team. Boston is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 day of rest. They may have avoided the sweep on Tuesday, but the gentleman’s sweep is still in play.
Miami had an outlier game on Tuesday as they only shot 25% from three-point range. This number was well below their playoff average of 38% this postseason. Miami should shoot better from long-range on Thursday. The Heat also seem to have the Celtics’ number. Miami is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against Boston and the Heat are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against the Celtics at TD Garden. Miami has been terrific on quick turnarounds of late as they are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games playing on 1 day of rest. I’m not sure if the Heat will win this game outright, but I think they keep it close enough to cover the number on the road in Boston on Thursday night.
NBA BETTING PREDICTION: MIAMI HEAT +8.5
