We are right in the middle of the NFL regular season, and the new NBA season is getting underway, so it’s fair to say that bettors have plenty of action to sink their teeth into over the winter months. Added to that, we have the upcoming college season, Premier League soccer, and the upcoming World Series. It’s boom time.
Whatever your choice in sports, you’ll be looking for value in the betting lines that you are offered by your sportsbook. Most experienced bettors will know a good price when they see it, of course, but odds are also fairly abstract, and it’s interesting when you play about with them to rethink your chances of winning. In short, we are talking about looking at the idea of implied probability to give you a different impression of the odds.
Celtics have a 25% chance of winning the NBA Championship
To explain, let’s look at the NBA odds for the new season. The champs, the Boston Celtics, are listed somewhere in the region of +300 with most sportsbooks to win their 19th NBA Championship. In fractional terms (popular in the UK), the odds are 3/1; in decimal terms (mostly favored in Europe), they are 4.0. But what do those odds tell us in terms of probability? The implied probability of the Celtics winning it all next June is 25%. Or if you want to look it another way, there’s a 75% chance that someone else wins the NBA Championship.
Now, our purpose here is not to argue that the Celtics will win this season. They are a great team and deserve to be favorites. Rather, it’s to highlight that implied probability feels a little different than looking at the true odds. +300 looks like a strong backing for any team at the beginning of the season, but when you factor in that those odds are also saying they have a 75% chance of NOT winning, it makes you take a step back.
Thunder’s odds may be better than their chances of winning
Interestingly, we have seen some statisticians’ predictions for the new NBA season, and they also put the Celtics’ chances around 25%. That won’t be wholly a coincidence, as sportsbooks with use actuary and not pull odds out of thin air, but it is, nonetheless, intriguing to see it match up with the odds. Oklahoma City Thunder are second favorites with most sportsbooks, given odds of around +800 for the NBA Championship. That’s an implied probability of 11.1%; or an 88.9% chance of not winning. Some projections, including ESPN’s BPI index, have put the Thunder’s chances at 12.5%, so technically you are getting better value in the odds if you back Oklahoma City at +800. Humans, of course, are notoriously bad at dealing with probability. So, it’s not as if simply seeing the implied probability of your betting selection is going to be some magic wand for appreciating the chances of winning. But it does offer a counterweight to the betting odds, allowing you to see it in a new light. Bettors tend to focus on big payoffs and may not always grasp the probabilities behind the bets. Implied probability offers a more grounded perspective, helping you manage expectations and find value in betting lines. While implied probabilities are still estimates and don’t guarantee outcomes, they allow you to quantify the risk and reward more clearly.
