The 5-seed Dallas Mavericks head to Minnesota to face the 3-seed Timberwolves on Wednesday night at 8:30 PM ET on TNT. It’s Game 1 of the 2024 Western Conference Finals. Can the Timberwolves cover the 4.5-point spread as home favorites? Keep reading for our Mavericks vs. Timberwolves betting prediction.
The series is tied 0-0.
The Dallas Mavericks went 50-32 straight up in the regular season this year. They are 8-4 straight up in the postseason this year. The Mavericks are 55-39 ATS this season.
The Minnesota Timberwolves went 56-26 straight up in the regular season this year. They are 8-3 straight up in the postseason this year. The Timberwolves are 48-43-2 ATS this season.
Mavericks vs. Timberwolves Matchup & Betting Odds
551 Dallas Mavericks (+4.5) at 552 Minnesota Timberwolves (-4.5); o/u 207.5
8:30 p.m. ET, Wednesday, May 22, 2024
Target Center, Minneapolis, MN
TV: TNT
Mavericks vs. Timberwolves Public Betting Information
Our NBA Public Betting Information page indicates that 80% of public bettors are currently backing the Timberwolves when it comes to the spread. This information is subject to change throughout the day, however, so be sure to check the link so you’re receiving the most up-to-date public betting data.
Dallas Mavericks Daily Fantasy Spin
Mavericks point guard Luka Doncic is probable to play on Wednesday with knee and ankle injuries. Doncic has popped up on the injury report for multiple games during these playoffs, but he’s yet to sit out a postseason contest. Doncic is averaging 27.3 points, 9.7 rebounds, and 9.1 assists per game during 13 playoff starts this year.
Dallas forwards Maxi Kleber (shoulder) and Olivier-Maxence Prosper (ankle) will both sit out Game 1 in Minnesota on Wednesday. Kleber was logging 5.7 points per game in these playoffs before getting injured.
Minnesota Timberwolves Daily Fantasy Spin
Timberwolves point guard Mike Conley is officially listed as questionable for Wednesday’s Game 1 against the Mavericks. He’s nursing an Achilles injury. It’s worth noting that Conley has been listed as questionable for the past 2 games, but he’s suited up each time.
Conley recorded 10 points, 8 rebounds, 4 assists, and 2 steals in 39 minutes of game action during his team’s 98-90 Game 7 win over Denver on Sunday night. Conley sat out Game 5 of the Denver series but suited up for Game 6 of his team’s series last round. In Minnesota’s Game 6 blowout win, Mike Conley registered 13 points, 4 rebounds, 5 assists, and a blocked shot in 31 minutes of playing time. He seems like he should be good to go on Wednesday.
Mavericks vs. Timberwolves NBA Betting Trends
Dallas is 6-8 ATS with the rest advantage this season.
Dallas is 25-28 ATS in playoff games since the start of the 2014 season.
Minnesota is 5-3 ATS in their last 8 games against Dallas.
Minnesota is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
Mavericks vs. Timberwolves NBA Prediction:
Dallas will get the extra day of rest for this contest, but I’m not sure that will matter. The Mavericks are only 6-8 ATS with the rest advantage this season, and they’ve lost Game 1 in each of their first two series in these playoffs. I could see the Mavs losing on Wednesday night and making it three straight 1-0 deficits in a row.
Minnesota won Game 7 on the road in Denver to advance to the Western Conference Finals on Sunday. The Timberwolves’ size, defense, and toughness spurred them to a somewhat unlikely victory over the defending NBA champs. But that was last round. A few numbers underscore why I like Minnesota in this game.
The Timberwolves are 10-8 ATS when playing on 2 or 3 days of rest and 33-28-2 ATS in conference games this season. Furthermore, Minnesota is an NBA-best 8-3 ATS in these playoffs and 15-12 ATS in playoff games since the start of the 2004 season. The latter figure is the second-best mark in the league over that span. I think Minnesota is the better team so I like them to come out, set the tone, and win and cover Game 1 at home on Wednesday night.
