The 5-seed Dallas Mavericks head back to Minnesota to face the 3-seed Timberwolves on Thursday night at 8:30 PM ET on TNT. It’s Game 5 of the 2024 Western Conference Finals. Can the Timberwolves cover the 5-point spread as home favorites? Keep reading for our Mavericks vs. Timberwolves betting prediction.
Dallas leads the series 3-1.
The Dallas Mavericks went 50-32 straight up in the regular season this year. They are 11-5 straight up and 10-6 ATS in the postseason this year. The Mavericks are 58-40 ATS this season.
The Minnesota Timberwolves went 56-26 straight up in the regular season this year. They are 9-6 straight up and 9-6 ATS in the postseason this year. The Timberwolves are 49-46-2 ATS this season.
Mavericks vs. Timberwolves Matchup & Betting Odds
511 Dallas Mavericks (+5) at 512 Minnesota Timberwolves (-5); o/u 209.5
8:30 p.m. ET, Thursday, May 30, 2024
Target Center, Minneapolis, MN
TV: TNT
Mavericks vs. Timberwolves Public Betting Information
Our NBA Public Betting Information page indicates that 74% of public bettors are currently backing the Mavericks when it comes to the spread. This information is subject to change throughout the day, however, so be sure to check the link so you’re receiving the most up-to-date public betting data.
Dallas Mavericks Daily Fantasy Spin
Mavericks point guard Luka Doncic is officially listed as questionable for Thursday’s game due to knee and ankle injuries. That designation is likely a formality as he’s been questionable for several games during these playoffs and has yet to sit out a contest.
Dallas center Dereck Lively II missed Game 4 with a neck sprain. He’s officially listed as questionable for Game 5 with that same ailment. Lively is averaging 8.5 points and 7.1 rebounds per contest in 21.5 minutes per game off the bench during the playoffs.
Minnesota Timberwolves Daily Fantasy Spin
Timberwolves point guard Mike Conley is questionable to play on Thursday due to an Achilles injury. Conley missed Game 5 of his team’s second-round series on May 14th with that ailment, but he’s played in every contest since. To wit, Mike Conley played 34 minutes in Game 4 on Tuesday night, supplying 14 points, 7 assists, 3 rebounds, and 4 steals. All indications are that he should be good to go against the Mavericks on Thursday night.
Mavericks vs. Timberwolves NBA Betting Trends
Dallas is 3-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
Dallas is 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games against Minnesota.
Minnesota is 17-25-2 ATS as a home favorite this season.
Minnesota is 28-29 ATS when playing an opponent on equal rest this season.
Mavericks vs. Timberwolves NBA Prediction:
Minnesota won Game 4 of this series on Tuesday in Dallas 105-100. The Timberwolves had previously lost three straight contests to the Mavericks. I believe that Game 4’s outcome was an outlier. Wolves power forward Karl-Anthony Towns had made 3 three-pointers in the entire series leading up to Tuesday. He went 4 of 5 from deep in Game 4. Mavericks stars Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving have been excellent during their team’s playoff run. That dynamic duo combined to shoot 13 for 39 in their team’s Game 4 loss on Thursday. Those numbers should normalize soon.
A few numbers lend credence to a Dallas bounce-back performance in Game 4 at Minnesota. Dallas is 23-13 ATS after a loss and 34-28 ATS when playing on 1 day of rest this season. The Mavs are an NBA-best 33-16 ATS as the road team this year, and they’re covering at a rate of 67.4% on the road this season. Dallas is 13-11 ATS as a road underdog and a league-best 10-6 ATS in the playoffs this year. The Mavericks money line of +166 is appealing, but I’ll take Dallas and the points as the pick in Game 5 on Thursday.