Nuggets vs. Suns Prediction & Odds
The top-seeded Denver Nuggets head back to Phoenix to take on the #4-seed Suns on ESPN Thursday night at 10:00 PM ET in Game 6 of the second round of the NBA Playoffs.
Can the Suns cover the 3-point spread as home favorites?
Denver leads the series 3-2.
The Denver Nuggets went 53-29 in the regular season. They are 7-3 in the playoffs this year. The Nuggets are 50-41-1 ATS on the campaign.
The Phoenix Suns went 45-37 in the regular season. They’re 6-4 in the playoffs this year. The Suns are 46-44-2 ATS this season.
Game Matchup & Betting Odds
555 Denver Nuggets (+3) at 556 Phoenix Suns (-3); O/U 226
10:00 PM ET, Thursday, May 11, 2023
Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ
Nuggets vs. Suns Public Betting Information
Our NBA Public Betting Information page indicates that 65% of public bettors are currently backing the Suns -3 in this contest. Note that these numbers are subject to change, so be sure to check the link to receive the most up-to-date public betting data.
Denver Nuggets DFS Spin
Denver point guard Jamal Murray will likely take on a significant offensive workload on Thursday. For the playoffs, he’s pouring in 25.9 points per game on 46.2% shooting from the floor and 37.8% from deep. Murray averaged 30 points per game in Games 3 and 4 in Phoenix and could be in for another big day on Thursday. His scoring makes him worth considering in DFS.
Denver small forward Michael Porter Jr. posted a pair of double-doubles in Games 3 and 4 on the road in Phoenix and his shooting (42.4% from three in the playoffs) and rebounding (7.8 per game this postseason) make him an excellent DFS play in Game 6 of this series on Thursday.
Phoenix Suns DFS Spin
Suns point guard Chris Paul will miss Thursday’s Game 6 against the Nuggets on Thursday night. He’s nursing a left groin strain. Paul had been posting 12.4 points, 7.4 assists, and 5 rebounds per game in 7 playoff contests for Phoenix this postseason.
The other injury status to monitor for the Suns is that of starting center Deandre Ayton. Ayton is dealing with a rib contusion and he’s officially listed as questionable for Thursday’s tilt with Denver. Ayton is averaging 13.4 points and 9.7 rebounds per game in the playoffs this year.
If Ayton is unable to play or is limited, Suns center Jock Landale should see some additional minutes. Landale is averaging 5 points and 3.8 rebounds per game in 13.7 minutes per contest in the playoffs for the Suns this year, but he played over 20 minutes in Games 3 and 4 of this series and seems like a good candidate to play at least that many on Thursday.
Nuggets vs. Suns NBA Betting Trends
Denver is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record.
Denver is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Phoenix is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a losing road record.
Phoenix is 22-17-1 ATS after a loss this season.
Nuggets vs. Suns NBA Prediction
The home team has won every game in this series so far, and I think that trend continues on Thursday night. Phoenix went 25-20-1 ATS as the home team this season and Denver went 20-25 ATS as the road team this year. The Suns have also been above average when giving points at home as they are 21-15-1 ATS this season as a home favorite. One final number tips the scales in the Suns’ favor definitively, in my opinion. Phoenix is 34-24-1 ATS this season playing on 1 day of rest. That’s the fifth-best mark in the league. I believe that the Suns’ Devin Booker and Kevin Durant both score 30+ points and the Suns live to fight another day.
NBA BETTING PREDICTION: PHOENIX SUNS -3
