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Thunder vs. Bucks Prediction: Can Milwaukee Cover as Home Dog?

Bucks vs. Pacers Game 5 Bucks vs. Pacers Game 5

The Oklahoma City Thunder head to Milwaukee to take on the Bucks on Sunday night. Oklahoma City has won two straight games and enters Sunday with a 55-12 record. Milwaukee is also riding a two game win streak and currently sits with a 38-28 record. They are currently 4 point home dogs with this Thunder vs. Bucks matchup set to tip off at 9:00 p.m. ET.   

Game Matchup & Betting Odds

Oklahoma City Thunder (-4) at Milwaukee Bucks (+4) o/u 232

9:00 p.m. ET, Sunday, March 16, 2025

Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI

TV: ESPN

Public Betting: Public Bettors Backing Thunder

As of this writing, our NBA Public Betting page shows that 70% of bets are on Oklahoma City. That said, this page is updated frequently so make sure that you click on the link provided so that you’re getting the most updated information.

Oklahoma City Thunder

The OKC Thunder defeated the Detroit Pistons 113-107 on Saturday night to win their second straight game. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander dropped 48 points on the night, making 17 of his 26 shot attempts. Cason Wallace was good for 20 points. Isaiah Hartenstein added a 12 point 10 rebound double-double. 

Chet Holmgren sat for this matchup to rest. Luguentz Dort suffered a groin injury in the third quarter and did not return. My guess is he won’t play on the second leg of a back-to-back. Jalen Williams is questionable to return to the court on Sunday as he battles a hip injury.     

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks won their second straight game on Saturday night with a 126-119 victory over the Indiana Pacers. Giannis Antetokounmpo finished with 34 points, 10 rebounds, and 7 assists. Damian Lillard finished with 25 points, 10 rebounds, and 8 assists. Kevin Porter Jr. added 16 points off the bench. The Bucks had a great shooting night, going 54.4% from the field, 40.5% from three, and 96.2% from the free throw line.

Oklahoma City is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games

The UNDER is 4-2 in Oklahoma City’s last 6 games

Milwaukee is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games

The OVER is 6-2 in Milwaukee’s last 8 games

Thunder vs. Bucks Prediction:

I’m going to roll with the home dogs in this matchup. Both teams are coming off of the first leg of a back-to-back but the Bucks remain at home while the Thunder are traveling. The Thunder are also dealing with injuries. Chet Holmgren will most likely be back on the court but Jalen Williams and Luguentz Dort might not fare as well. Meanwhile the Bucks are completely healthy. They have some momentum going after winning their last two home games and they have covered the spread in 7 of their last 9 games. Milwaukee is 18-15-1 ATS on their home floor, and have covered in 4 of their last 6.  

Thunder vs. Bucks Prediction: Bucks +4

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