The 1-seed Thunder head to Dallas to take on the 5-seed Mavericks on Saturday afternoon at 3:30 PM ET on ABC. It’s Game 3 of the second round of the NBA Playoffs. Can the Mavericks cover the 2.5-point spread as home favorites? Keep reading for our Thunder vs. Mavericks betting prediction.
The series is tied 1-1.
The Oklahoma City Thunder went 57-25 straight up in the regular season and are 5-1 straight up in the postseason this year. The Thunder are 50-37-1 ATS this season.
The Dallas Mavericks went 50-32 straight up in the regular season and are 5-3 straight up in the postseason this year. The Mavericks are 53-37 ATS this season.
Thunder vs. Mavericks Matchup & Betting Odds
505 Oklahoma City Thunder (+2.5) at 506 Dallas Mavericks (-2.5); o/u 217.5
3:30 p.m. ET, Saturday, May 11, 2024
American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX
TV: ABC
Thunder vs. Mavericks Public Betting Information
Our NBA Public Betting Information page indicates that 65% of public bettors are currently backing the Mavericks when it comes to the spread. This information is subject to change throughout the day, however, so be sure to check the link so you’re receiving the most up-to-date public betting data.
Oklahoma City Thunder Daily Fantasy Spin
Thunder point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was stellar in his team’s 119-110 home loss to the Mavs on Thursday night. In that contest, SGA recorded 33 points, 12 rebounds, 8 assists, a steal, and 2 blocks. He shot 13 of 24 from the floor in the loss.
Oklahoma City forward Jalen Williams also played well in Game 2 on Thursday. The Santa Clara alum racked up 20 points, 4 rebounds, 4 assists, a steal, and a blocked shot. He shot 2 of 4 from deep and 4 of 4 from the foul line in the defeat.
Dallas Mavericks Daily Fantasy Spin
Mavericks point guard Luka Doncic is officially listed as questionable for Saturday afternoon’s Game 3 against the Thunder. He’s nursing a right knee sprain and left ankle soreness. Doncic has carried the questionable tag for multiple games in these playoffs and has yet to sit out any of his team’s contests. All indications are that he should be good to go on Saturday.
Dallas forwards Olivier-Maxence Prosper (ankle) and Maxi Kleber (shoulder) have both been ruled out for Saturday’s game. Kleber is the bigger loss of the two as he is averaging 5.7 points per game in 19.3 minutes per contest during the 2024 postseason.
Thunder vs. Mavericks NBA Betting Trends
Oklahoma City is 2-3 ATS in their last 5 games against Dallas.
The over is 46-39-3 in Oklahoma City’s games this season.
Dallas is 37-23 ATS in conference games this season.
Dallas is 37-21 ATS when playing an opponent on equal rest this season.
Thunder vs. Mavericks NBA Prediction:
After five straight playoff wins, Oklahoma City finally came back down to Earth on Thursday night. They lost at home to Dallas 119-110 in Game 2 of this series. The key was three-point shooting. The Mavericks hit 18 of 37 treys (48.6%), while the Thunder only connected on 10 of 30 three-point shots (33.3%). Not helping matters was the fact that Oklahoma City recorded fewer total rebounds, offensive rebounds, assists, and steals than Dallas. The Thunder may rue the chance that they had to defend home court on Thursday.
Dallas’s path in this round of the playoffs mirrors the path they took last round. The Mavericks lost Game 1 last round, then won Games 2 and 3. I could see them pulling off a similar feat here. A few numbers bolster Dallas’s case. The Mavs are 30-24 ATS after a win and 37-19 ATS as a favorite this season. The latter mark is the fourth-best record in the league. I think Dallas is able to build off of the momentum they generated in Game 2. I like the Mavs to win and cover at home on Saturday afternoon.
