The 1-seed Thunder head back to Dallas to take on the 5-seed Mavericks on Saturday night at 8:00 PM ET on ABC. It’s Game 6 of the second round of the NBA Playoffs. Can the Mavericks cover the 3.5-point spread as home favorites? Keep reading for our Thunder vs. Mavericks betting prediction.
Dallas leads the series 3-2.
The Oklahoma City Thunder went 57-25 straight up in the regular season and are 6-3 straight up in the postseason this year. The Thunder are 51-39-1 ATS this season.
The Dallas Mavericks went 50-32 straight up in the regular season and are 7-4 straight up in the postseason this year. The Mavericks are 55-38 ATS this season.
Thunder vs. Mavericks Matchup & Betting Odds
531 Oklahoma City Thunder (+3.5) at 532 Dallas Mavericks (-3.5); o/u 209.5
8:00 p.m. ET, Saturday, May 18, 2024
American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX
TV: ABC
Thunder vs. Mavericks Public Betting Information
Our NBA Public Betting Information page indicates that 80% of public bettors are currently backing the Mavericks when it comes to the spread. This information is subject to change throughout the day, however, so be sure to check the link so you’re receiving the most up-to-date public betting data.
Oklahoma City Thunder Daily Fantasy Spin
Thunder point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander played well in his team’s 104-92 home loss to Dallas on Wednesday night. In that game, SGA recorded 30 points, 6 rebounds, 8 assists, 2 steals, and a blocked shot. He shot 12 of 22 from the floor and 2 of 4 from long range in the defeat.
Oklahoma City guard Luguentz Dort also made his presence felt in his team’s game on Wednesday. The Arizona State alum logged 12 points, 6 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 steals, and 2 made three-pointers. Dort converted 4 of 11 shots from the field in the loss.
Dallas Mavericks Daily Fantasy Spin
Mavericks superstar point guard Luka Doncic is probable to play on Saturday due to a right knee sprain and left ankle soreness. Doncic is the team’s best player and primary ballhandler. He’s averaging 27.1 points, 9.6 rebounds, and 9.0 assists per game in these playoffs.
Dallas forwards Olivier-Maxence Prosper (ankle) and Maxi Kleber (shoulder) will both sit out Saturday’s Game 6 in Dallas. Kleber is the bigger loss of the two as he’s averaging 5.7 points per game in 19.3 minutes per contest in the 2024 postseason.
Thunder vs. Mavericks NBA Betting Trends
Oklahoma City is 1-3 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
The over is 46-42-3 in Oklahoma City’s games this season.
Dallas is 31-25 ATS after a win this season.
Dallas is 18-15 ATS as a home favorite.
Thunder vs. Mavericks NBA Prediction:
Oklahoma City has two potentially fatal flaws. They’re young, and they’re small. The Thunder’s entire Game 5 starting lineup was aged 25 or younger. And Oklahoma City’s only starter over 6’6” on Wednesday was Chet Holmgren. The only other Thunder players to get significant minutes that are over 6’6” are Josh Giddey, who’s a guard, and forward Jaylin Williams. Dallas outrebounded OKC 46-33 and outscored the Thunder 48-44 in the paint in their Game 5 win. Mavs centers Dereck Lively and Daniel Gafford combined for 20 points and 17 rebounds on Wednesday. The Thunder couldn’t really do much to match the Mavericks’ size in Game 5. I’m not sure how that gets fixed before Game 6.
Dallas has also been one of the better teams against the number all season. The Mavericks are 39-22 ATS when playing an opponent on equal rest and 10-6 ATS when playing on 2 or 3 days of rest this season. Furthermore, Dallas is 38-20 ATS as a favorite and 39-24 ATS in conference games this season. In their first-round series, the Mavericks won Game 5 on the road, then won Game 6 at home to close out the Clippers. I could see Dallas doing something similar to Oklahoma City in Game 6 on Saturday night. I’m laying the points with the Mavs at home in this one.