Nine-seed Baylor and 8-seed Mississippi State both head to Raleigh to face each other on Friday afternoon in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. The game is at 12:15 PM ET on CBS. Can Mississippi State cover the 1.5-point spread as neutral site favorites? Keep reading for our Baylor vs. Mississippi State prediction.
The Baylor Bears are 19-14 straight up overall this year. They are 12-18-2 ATS this season.
The Mississippi State Bulldogs are 21-12 straight up overall this year. They are 15-18 ATS this season.
Baylor vs. Mississippi State Matchup & Betting Odds
779 Baylor Bears (+1.5) vs. 780 Mississippi State Bulldogs (-1.5); o/u 144.5
12:15 p.m. ET, Friday, March 21, 2025
Lenovo Center, Raleigh, NC
TV: CBS
Baylor vs. Mississippi State Public Betting Information
Our CBB Public Betting Information page indicates that 63% of public bettors are currently backing Baylor when it comes to the spread. This information is subject to change throughout the day, however, so be sure to check the link so you’re receiving the most up-to-date public betting data.
Baylor Bears Game Notes
Bears guard Langston Love is probable to play on Friday. He has been dealing with an ankle injury. The 6’5” junior is putting up 8.4 points per game in 25.7 minutes per contest this season.
Baylor forward Norchad Omier was spectacular in his team’s 76-74 loss to Texas Tech last Thursday. In 32 minutes, the 6’7” senior recorded 29 points, 15 rebounds, an assist, 2 blocks, and a steal. Omier shot 12 of 18 from the floor and 5 of 6 from the foul line in the loss.
Mississippi State Bulldogs Game Notes
Bulldogs forward KeShawn Murphy provided a spark off the bench in his team’s 85-73 loss to Missouri last Thursday. In 29 minutes, the 6’10” junior logged 18 points, 8 rebounds, 2 assists, and 4 steals. Murphy shot 6 of 12 from the field and 6 of 8 from the charity stripe in the defeat.
Mississippi State guard Josh Hubbard made his presence felt against the Tigers last Thursday. The 5’11” sophomore from Madison, MS registered 24 points, 1 rebound, 1 steal, 3 made three-pointers, and 5 made free throws across 38 minutes. Hubbard leads the club in scoring with 18.7 points per game this year.
Baylor vs. Mississippi State CBB Betting Trends
Baylor is 2-0-1 ATS in their last 3 games overall.
The Bears are 8-4 ATS in NCAA Tournament games since the start of the 2019 season.
Mississippi State is 0-4 ATS in NCAA Tournament games since the start of the 2008 season.
Mississippi State is 12-14 ATS as a favorite this season.
Baylor vs. Mississippi State CBB Prediction:
I don’t like this spot for Mississippi State. A few relevant numbers make the case against the Bulldogs. Mississippi State is 3-4 ATS in neutral-site games and 10-12 ATS when playing an opponent on equal rest this season. What’s more, since the start of the 2021 season, the Bulldogs are 15-17-1 ATS when playing on 4+ days of rest.
Conversely, Baylor is 42-35-2 ATS when playing on 4+ days of rest since the start of the 2017 season. I think the Bears have more playmakers than the Bulldogs and we see that borne out on the floor on Friday. I’m taking Baylor +1.5 points over Mississippi State at Bovada.lv.