Florida Atl. vs. San Diego St. Prediction
Number nine seed Florida Atlantic and #5 seed San Diego State head to Houston to face each other at 6:09 PM ET Saturday night on CBS in the Final Four of the NCAA Tournament.
Can the Aztecs cover the 2.5-point spread as neutral-site favorites?
Florida Atlantic is 35-3 on the year with their best wins coming over Tennessee and Kansas State. Their worst losses came against UAB and Middle Tennessee. The Owls are 24-11-1 against the spread this season.
San Diego State is 31-6 this season with their best wins coming over Alabama and Creighton. Their worst losses came against New Mexico and Nevada. The Aztecs are 19-15-2 against the spread this year.
Game Matchup and Betting Odds
701 Florida Atlantic Owls (+2.5) vs. 702 San Diego State Aztecs (-2.5); O/U 132
6:09 PM ET, Saturday, April 1, 2023
NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
Florida Atlantic vs. San Diego State Public Betting Information
Our CBB Public Betting Information page indicates that the public favors the Owls in this contest. Our public betting data illustrates that 56% of public bets are on Florida Atlantic +2.5. Do note that these numbers are subject to change and could be different once tipoff rolls around, so be sure to check the link so you’re receiving the most up-to-date public betting data.
Florida Atlantic Game Notes
Florida Atlantic sophomore guard Johnell Davis is the Owls’ leading scorer. The 6’4” Gary, Indiana native is averaging 17.3 points per game in 4 NCAA Tournament games this season. In that same span, Davis is shooting 44.9% from the field and 88% from the free throw line. Davis will likely be key to the outcome of this game on Saturday.
The Owls’ leading rebounder is 7’1” sophomore center Vladislav Goldin. Goldin recorded 14 points and 13 rebounds in Florida Atlantic’s Elite Eight win over Kansas State last weekend, and his size and shot-blocking ability could be the X-factor in this game.
San Diego State Game Notes
San Diego State guard Lamont Butler was huge in the Aztecs’ regional final win over Creighton last Sunday. He poured in 18 points on 8 of 11 shooting in San Diego State’s 57-56 win. If leading scorer Matt Bradley struggles on Saturday, Butler and fellow guard Darrion Trammell will likely need to pick up the scoring slack.
The Aztecs’ most impactful big man is 6’10” senior Nathan Mensah. Mensah leads the team in rebounding with 5.9 boards per game and shot-blocking with 1.7 rejections per game. Mensah has blocked at least 2 shots in each of San Diego State’s NCAA Tournament games and may need to block at least that many to keep Florida Atlantic at bay on Saturday.
Florida Atlantic vs. San Diego State CBB Betting Trends
Florida Atlantic is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Florida Atlantic is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games.
Florida Atlantic is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an outright win.
Florida Atlantic is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.
Florida Atlantic vs. San Diego State CBB Prediction:
The Owls have been one of the best teams against the number all year. Florida Atlantic is 24-11-1 ATS this season, which is the fifth-best mark in the country. The Owls have also been solid against better teams. Florida Atlantic is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against a team with a winning straight-up record, and 19-7-2 ATS in their last 28 games against a team with a winning percentage over .600. Finally, Florida Atlantic has been great at racking up consecutive wins against the spread, as the Owls are 23-9-1 ATS in their last 33 games following an ATS win. For these reasons, I’ll take the Owls to pull off the minor upset or come very close in Houston on Saturday.
CBB BETTING PREDICTION: FLORIDA ATLANTIC OWLS +2.5
