Sixteen-seed Mount St. Mary’s and 1-seed Duke both head to Raleigh to face each other on Friday afternoon in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. The game is at 2:50 PM ET on CBS. Can Duke cover the 32.5-point spread as neutral site favorites? Keep reading for our Mount St. Mary’s vs. Duke prediction.
The Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers are 23-12 straight up in the regular season this year. They are 22-11-1 ATS this season.
The Duke Blue Devils are 31-3 straight up in the regular season this year. They are 22-12 ATS this season.
Mount St. Mary’s vs. Duke Matchup & Betting Odds
777 Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers (+32.5) vs. 778 Duke Blue Devils (-32.5); o/u 140.5
2:50 p.m. ET, Friday, March 21, 2025
Lenovo Center, Raleigh, NC
TV: CBS
Mount St. Mary’s vs. Duke Public Betting Information
Our CBB Public Betting Information page indicates that 79% of public bettors are currently backing Mount St. Mary’s when it comes to the spread. This information is subject to change throughout the day, however, so be sure to check the link so you’re receiving the most up-to-date public betting data.
Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers Game Notes
Mountaineers guard Carmelo Pacheco will sit out Friday’s game with a finger injury. The sophomore from Harrisonburg, VA is averaging 9.5 points per game in 28.2 minutes per contest this season.
Mount St. Mary’s forward Terrell Ard Jr. will miss Friday’s game and the rest of the season with a ruptured Achilles. He’ll finish the 2024-25 campaign with averages of 10.9 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 1.1 steals per game.
Duke Blue Devils Game Notes
Blue Devils guard/forward Cooper Flagg missed the team’s last 2 games with a sprained ankle, but he won’t have an injury designation ahead of Friday’s first-round NCAA Tournament game. Flagg will be good to go and should give the Blue Devils a massive boost.
Cooper Flagg’s numbers this season are terrific: 18.9 points, 7.5 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 1.5 steals, and 1.3 blocks per game. The freshman’s shooting splits of 49/37/83 on field goals, three-pointers, and free throws are also elite. His presence raises Duke’s ceiling considerably on Friday and going forward.
Duke forward Maliq Brown (shoulder) is officially listed as questionable to play on Friday. Brown is averaging 2.6 points and 3.9 rebounds per game in 16.9 minutes per contest this year.
Mount St. Mary’s vs. Duke CBB Betting Trends
The under is 19-15 in Mount St. Mary’s games this season.
The under is 15-7 in Mount St. Mary’s games after a win this season.
Duke is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
Duke is 21-12 ATS as a favorite this season.
Mount St. Mary’s vs. Duke CBB Prediction:
Duke will have Cooper Flagg back for this game, which means that the Blue Devils should be in full juggernaut mode on Friday afternoon. The Blue Devils lead the nation with an average scoring margin of +20.8 points per game this season. What’s more, Duke is 1st in the country in adjusted efficiency margin this season according to Kenpom.com.
On top of that, the Blue Devils are 20-10 ATS after a win and 7-4 ATS in non-conference games this season. Duke is also 5-4 ATS when playing with the rest advantage and 7-3 ATS when playing on 4+ days of rest this year.
The spread of 32.5 points might seem like a lot. And it is, for most teams. Not Duke though. The Blue Devils have 9 wins by 33 points or more this season. I like them to increase that number to 10 on Friday. The pick is Duke -32.5 points over Mount St. Mary’s at Bovada.lv.