The 2025 NCAA Tournament’s First Four features a compelling matchup between the North Carolina Tar Heels and the San Diego State Aztecs. Both teams, seeded 11th, will vie for a spot in the main bracket, with the winner set to face the No. 6 seed Ole Miss Rebels in the South Region’s first round. What’s the best bet in tonight’s North Carolina vs. San Diego State matchup?
Game Matchup & Betting Odds
North Carolina Tar Heels (-4.5) at San Diego State Aztecs (+4.5); o/u 142.5
9:10 p.m. ET, Tuesday, March 18, 2025
UD Arena, Dayton, OH
TV: truTV
North Carolina vs. San Diego State Public Betting: Bettors Backing Tar Heels
Our CBB Public Betting Information page indicates that 62% of public bettors are currently backing North Carolina when it comes to the spread. This information is subject to change throughout the day, however, so be sure to check the link so you’re receiving the most up-to-date public betting data.
Team Overviews
North Carolina Tar Heels
The Tar Heels (22-13) secured their tournament berth amidst some controversy, largely due to their strong finish in the ACC tournament, where they reached the semifinals. Despite a challenging season, they demonstrated resilience, particularly with a four-game winning streak leading up to the tournament. Offensively, North Carolina averages 75.2 points per game, shooting 45.8% from the field. However, their defense has been inconsistent, allowing an average of 72.5 points per game.
San Diego State Aztecs
The Aztecs (21-9) earned their spot in the tournament after a season marked by strong defensive performances. They rank among the top teams nationally in defensive efficiency, allowing just 62.3 points per game. Offensively, San Diego State averages 68.9 points per game, with a field goal percentage of 43.2%. Their season faced a setback with a loss to Boise State in the Mountain West quarterfinals, but the team’s overall performance secured them an at-large bid.
Key Players
North Carolina: Guard R.J. Davis leads the Tar Heels with an average of 16.8 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 3.9 assists per game.
San Diego State: Forward Magoon Gwath, returning from a knee injury, has been pivotal for the Aztecs, contributing significantly on both ends of the court.
North Carolina vs. San Diego State CBB Prediction:
This First Four matchup presents a classic offense-versus-defense scenario. North Carolina’s scoring ability will be tested against San Diego State’s disciplined defense. The outcome may hinge on the Tar Heels’ ability to overcome the Aztecs’ defensive schemes and maintain their recent offensive efficiency.
San Diego State’s elite defense could pose challenges for North Carolina’s offense. The Aztecs’ past tournament experience and defensive prowess make them a formidable opponent. While I’m not overlooking North Carolina’s recent momentum and offensive capabilities, I am taking the points with San Diego State at Bovada.lv.
North Carolina vs. San Diego State Hoops Prediction: SAN DIEGO STATE +4.5