Number five seed San Diego State and #1 seed Alabama head to Louisville to face each other at 6:30 PM ET Friday night on TBS in the third round of the NCAA Tournament. Can the Aztecs cover the 7.5-point spread as neutral-site underdogs?
San Jose State vs. Alabama Prediction
San Diego State is 29-6 on the year with their best wins coming over Utah State and Boise State. Their worst losses came against New Mexico and Nevada.
The Aztecs are 17-15-2 against the spread this season.
Alabama is 31-5 this season with their best wins coming over Michigan State and Houston. Their worst losses came against Oklahoma and Texas A&M. The Crimson Tide are 20-15-1 against the spread this year.
Game Matchup and Betting Odds
647 San Diego State Aztecs (+7.5) vs. 648 Alabama Crimson Tide (-7.5); O/U 136.5
6:30 PM ET, Friday, March 24, 2023
KFC Yum! Center, Louisville, KY
San Diego State vs. Alabama Public Betting Information
Our CBB Public Betting Information page indicates that the public favors the Crimson Tide in this contest. Our public betting data illustrates that 54% of public bets are on Alabama -7.5. Do note that these numbers are subject to change and could be different once tipoff rolls around, so be sure to check the link so you’re receiving the most up-to-date public betting data.
San Diego State Game Notes
San Diego State’s leading scorer is senior guard Matt Bradley. The 6’4” California transfer is pouring in 13 points per game while shooting 41.1% from the field this season. He’s the only Aztec player to average double-figures in scoring and has taken a team-high 392 field goal attempts this season.
The Aztecs’ leading rebounder and shot blocker is 6’10” senior forward Nathan Mensah. The Accra, Ghana native is pulling down 5.9 rebounds per game and swatting 1.6 shots per game. Mensah only averages 6.1 points per game but has shot an efficient 54.8% from the field on the campaign.
Alabama Game Notes
Alabama forward Brandon Miller is listed as probable for Friday’s game with a groin injury. Miller is the Crimson Tide’s best player and will likely be a top-10 pick in the NBA Draft if/when he declares after the season. Miller won the SEC Player of the Year Award this year and led the conference in scoring with 19.1 points per game. He was fourth in the SEC in rebounding this season with 8.2 boards per game. The trio of Brandon Miller, Mark Sears, and Jahvon Quinerly will likely determine whether Alabama wins and covers this game on Friday night.
San Diego State vs. Alabama CBB Betting Trends
San Diego State is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an outright win of more than 20 points.
Alabama is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Alabama is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.
Alabama is 20-8 ATS in their last 28 Friday games.
San Diego State vs. Alabama CBB Prediction:
Alabama has the best odds to win the national title, and for good reason. The Crimson Tide are second in the nation in adjusted efficiency margin according to KenPom.com. They are also second in the country in average scoring margin and fourth in the nation in defensive efficiency. Alabama has multiple players that can drop 20 in a game and they’ve played a rigorous schedule to get them ready for these games this weekend.
As for San Diego State, the Aztecs won the Mountain West regular season and conference tournament, but they only went 2-2 against major conference teams this season. The Aztecs beat Charleston and Furman to get to the Sweet 16, and Alabama is obviously going to be much better than both of those teams. I think Alabama’s speed and length will be too much for San Diego State to deal with on both ends Friday night, which is why I’ll be laying the points with the Crimson Tide.
CBB BETTING PREDICTION: ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE -7.5
