Seven-seed St. Mary’s and 2-seed Alabama both remain in Cleveland to face each other on Sunday night in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. The game is at 6:10 PM ET on TNT. Can Alabama cover the 5.5-point spread as neutral site favorites? Keep reading for our St. Mary’s vs. Alabama prediction.
The St. Mary’s Gaels are 29-5 straight up overall this year. They are 14-19 ATS this season.
The Alabama Crimson Tide are 26-8 straight up overall this year. They are 19-15 ATS this season.
St. Mary’s vs. Alabama Matchup & Betting Odds
861 St. Mary’s Gaels (+5.5) vs. 862 Alabama Crimson Tide (-5.5); o/u 149.5
6:10 p.m. ET, Sunday, March 23, 2025
Rocket Arena, Cleveland, OH
TV: TNT
St. Mary’s vs. Alabama Public Betting Information
Our CBB Public Betting Information page indicates that 66% of public bettors are currently backing Alabama when it comes to the spread. This information is subject to change throughout the day, however, so be sure to check the link so you’re receiving the most up-to-date public betting data.
St. Mary’s Gaels Game Notes
Gaels guard Jordan Ross was superb in his team’s 59-56 first-round win over Vanderbilt on Friday. In that game, the 6’3” sophomore put up 15 points, 3 rebounds, 3 assists, and 3 blocks in 33 minutes. Ross shot 6 of 11 from the floor and 2 of 4 from long distance in the victory.
St. Mary’s center Mitchell Saxen notched a double-double in his team’s game on Friday. The 6’10” senior from Seattle recorded 12 points, 11 rebounds, 1 block, 1 steal, and 1 made three-pointer in 34 minutes of game action. Saxen is third on the team in scoring this season with 10.7 points per game.
Alabama Crimson Tide Game Notes
Crimson Tide guard Mark Sears stuffed the stat sheet in his team’s 90-81 first-round win over Robert Morris on Friday. In 33 minutes, the senior from Muscle Shoals, AL registered 22 points, 5 rebounds, and 10 assists. Sears shot 5 of 12 from the field and 11 of 13 from the foul line in the win.
Alabama forward Mouhamed Dioubate posted a double-double in the Tide’s win over the Colonials on Friday. In 21 minutes off the bench, the 6’7” sophomore logged 18 points, 10 rebounds, a block, a steal, and 2 made three-pointers. Dioubate is third on the team in rebounding with 6.1 rebounds per game this year.
St. Mary’s vs. Alabama CBB Betting Trends
St. Mary’s is 7-1 ATS as an underdog since the start of last season.
The Gaels are 28-25 ATS after a win since the beginning of last season.
Alabama is 2-3 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Alabama is 6-7 ATS in NCAA Tournament games since the start of the 2019 season.
St. Mary’s vs. Alabama CBB Prediction:
These two teams play completely different styles of basketball. St. Mary’s likes to slow things down and play defense. Alabama likes to run and gun. The Gaels have the #7 defense in the country and play at the fifth-slowest pace in the nation this season. Alabama has the #4 offense in the nation and plays at the fastest pace in the land this season according to Kenpom.com.
A few more numbers make the case for the Gaels. St. Mary’s has the fourth-best scoring defense in the country and ranks #10 nationally in traditional defensive efficiency this season. When the officials decide to swallow their whistles, I think that favors the Gaels’ slower defensive style of basketball.
St. Mary’s has been good while getting points over the past few seasons. The Gaels are 13-9-1 ATS as an underdog since the start of the 2021 season. I like them to improve that record here on Sunday. The pick is St. Mary’s +5.5 points over Alabama at Bovada.lv.