Florida State Win Total Prediction
The Florida State Seminoles had a solid season in 2022. Florida State went 10-3 in head coach Mike Norvell’s third season and ended the year by defeating Oklahoma in the Cheez-It Bowl 35-32.
Can the Seminoles build off of last year’s success and win 10 regular season games in 2023?
Florida State Seminoles Over/Under Win Total Odds via BetMGM
Over 9.5 -145
Under 9.5 +120
2022 Season Recap
The 2022 season was a string of runs for Florida State. The Seminoles opened the year by winning their first four games, then lost their next three to go to 4-3. From there, Florida State showed great mental toughness as they won their final five regular-season games to finish 9-3. They then won a close game over Oklahoma in the Cheez-It Bowl. Head coach Mike Norvell finally delivered as the Noles had gone 3-6 in his first season, and 5-7 in his second, before finishing 10-3 last season. Florida State’s quarterback Jordan Travis had a breakout year in 2022 as he threw for 3,214 yards, 24 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. Travis also ran for 417 yards and 7 touchdowns, posted a passer rating of 160.1, and a total QBR of 85.3. The latter figure ranked seventh in the nation last season. Florida State ranked 18th in points scored per game last season with 35.2 and 23rd in the nation in points allowed per game with 21.8. Not content to stand pat, the Noles added several new players through the transfer portal as they aim to make a run at an ACC championship in 2023.
2023 Season Preview
Key Player Departures: S Jammie Robinson, TE Camren McDonald, WR Pokey Wilson, DT Robert Cooper, RB Treshaun Ward, WR Mycah Pittman, DL Jarrett Jackson, IOL Zane Herring, DL Bishop Thomas, CB Omarion Cooper
Key Player Additions: WR Keon Coleman, LG Casey Roddick, RT Jeremiah Byers, TE Jaheim Bell, DT Braden Fiske, CB Fentrell Cypress II, IOL Keiondre Jones, TE Kyle Morlock, EDGE Gilber Edmond, WR Destyn Hill
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Florida State only lost four players to the NFL from last year. Safety Jammie Robinson was drafted in the fifth round by the Carolina Panthers and tight end Camren McDonald, wide receiver Pokey Wilson, and defensive tackle Robert Cooper all signed with various clubs as undrafted free agents. The Seminoles did lose multiple skill players on offense to the transfer portal, however. Running back Treshaun Ward ran for 628 yards and 7 touchdowns as a Seminole last season, but he transferred to Kansas State. Former Florida State wideout Mycah Pittman caught 32 passes for 330 yards and 3 touchdowns last year, but he’ll suit up for Utah this fall. Florida State didn’t add any depth at running back as that was likely one of the reasons that Ward ended up transferring. But Florida State did make some big additions at wide receiver. Former Michigan State wide receiver Keon Coleman joins Florida State this season The 6’4” 215 pound Z receiver had 798 receiving yards and 7 touchdown receptions last season. He should start right away for Florida State. The Seminoles also brought in highly touted wide receiver recruit Destyn Hill. Hill surprised many with his summer performance and may even become the lone freshman starter on offense at slot receiver as Florida State opens the season. If he does, that would make five new players starting on the Seminoles’ offense who are either freshmen or transfers. It’s tough to know how well everyone will gel and if the team will hit their stride early in the year.
The two new starters on defense for Florida State are former Western Michigan defensive lineman Braden Fiske and former Virginia cornerback Fentrell Cypress II. Fiske had 6 sacks and 12 tackles for loss for the Broncos last season while Cypress had 39 total tackles and 14 passes defended for the Cavaliers last season. Both players likely want a bigger national spotlight and should get it playing for a Florida State club with high hopes in 2023.
Key Coaching Departures: Defensive backs coach Marcus Woodson, senior defensive analyst Cortez Carter
Key Coaching Promotions/Additions: Defensive backs coach Patrick Surtain Sr., senior defensive analyst Anthony Midget
Florida State head coach Mike Norvell elected to keep things mostly the same for the Seminoles’ coaching staff heading into 2023. He was fortunate that no one wanted to poach his coordinators as well. The only position coaching change occurred when former Florida State defensive backs coach Marcus Woodson took a position as the co-defensive coordinator and safeties coach at Arkansas. That role was a promotion for Woodson and he moved to the premier conference in college football, so it’s understandable why he would want to move on. In his place, Norvell brought in former NFL veteran cornerback Patrick Surtain Sr. to coach the defensive backs. Surtain was a three-time Pro Bowler as a cornerback for the Miami Dolphins and served as a defensive assistant for the Dolphins last season. Before that, Surtain was a defensive backs coach, defensive coordinator, and head coach at American Heritage High School in Plantation, Florida. Hiring Surtain is a bold choice considering he’s never been a position coach at the college or NFL level before.
Florida State lost senior defensive analyst Cortez Carter to Louisiana Tech, as he elected to take a job as the linebackers coach there. In his stead, the Seminoles brought in former Tennessee Titans defensive backs coach Anthony Midget to serve as a senior defensive analyst. It seems likely that the hirings of Surtain and Midget were meant to complement one another as Midget has over a decade of FBS and NFL coaching experience while only playing two seasons in the NFL. Conversely, Surtain played 11 years in the NFL but has only 1 year of FBS and NFL coaching experience. Florida State ranked 13th in the country in opponent yards per pass attempt last season and they’ll have to be good in the secondary again if they’re going to compete for an ACC title.
NCAA Football Over/Under Prediction
The Seminoles have the 50th-toughest schedule according to Sports Betting Dime. They could have two losses in their first four games. Florida State opens the season against LSU in a neutral site game in Orlando, then has to play at Clemson less than three weeks later. I have the Seminoles losing both of those games. The other potential trouble spots for Florida State are at Wake Forest on October 28, at Pittsburgh on November 4, home for Miami on November 11, and at Florida to close out the regular season on November 25. If Florida State does indeed lose to LSU and Clemson in the first four weeks of the season, they’d have to go 8-0 the rest of the way and beat four top-55 teams in ESPN’s SP+ preseason rankings to cash the over. I don’t see that happening. It might come down to the Florida game at the end of the year, but I believe that Florida State will go 9-3 or worse in the 2023 regular season, which would cash the under.
NCAA FOOTBALL OVER/UNDER WIN TOTAL PREDICTION: FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES UNDER 9.5 WINS +120