Underdog Free Pick of the Week
(The Spread) – We think we have an outright upset in the Big 12 this Saturday.
Odds: Oddsmakers have installed No. 16 Baylor as a 3.5-point road favorite against unranked Kansas State at 3:30PM ET today. The Bears come into the game with a 3-0 record and is 2-0 against the spread against FBS opponents, while the Wildcats are 3-0 and 2-0 against the number versus FBS teams.
Line Movement: Baylor opened as a 3.5-point favorite at the Las Vegas Hilton and after the line briefly went up to 4 about a day later, the line has dropped back down to 3.5. That’s where the spread currently sits down in Vegas, and at most offshore sports books.
View 2012 BCS National Championship Odds
Public Betting: Of the 7,600-plus wagers on today’s game, 77% of college football public bettors currently favor Baylor -3.5. This information is subject to change leading up to kickoff, however, so make sure you click on the “Public Betting” link provided to ensure that you’re viewing the most up-to-date public betting numbers.
College Football Free Pick: Take the Wildcats. Baylor hasn’t had to face a tough opponent since its big win against TCU on opening night. The Bears simply haven’t been challenged and while Kansas State comes into this game unranked, this is a game that the Wildcats could win outright. (That said, take the points, especially seeing as how the spread is off the magic number “3.”) They shocked the Hurricanes in Miami last Saturday as a 12.5-point underdog and now return home full of confidence. According to latest college football trends, the Bears are just 2-5 against the spread in their last seven games against Kansas State and 1-4 ATS in their last five conference games. They’re also 1-4 ATS versus a team with a winning record and 1-5 ATS in their last six games following an ATS win. Meanwhile, according to latest college football trends the Wildcats are 4-1 against the number in their last five games following a straight up win and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 conference games. They’re also 5-2 ATS in their last seven games in October and 4-1 ATS in their last five games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 5 FREE PICK: KANSAS STATE +3.5
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