Utah Win Total Prediction
The Utah Utes had a tremendous season in 2022. Utah went 10-4 and won the Pac-12 championship before ultimately losing the Rose Bowl to Penn State 35-21.
Can the Utes match or better their 2022 regular season win total in 2023?
Utah Utes Over/Under Win Total Odds via BetMGM
Over 8.5 +115
Under 8.5 -135
2022 Season Recap
Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham seems to hang his hat on toughness. The 2022 Utah Utes were no exception. Utah ranked seventh in the country in average yards per rush attempt (5.4), and 28th in opponent yards per point. The team was led by perennially underrated quarterback Cam Rising who threw for 3,034 yards, 26 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions last year while posting a passer rating of 149.0. If that wasn’t enough, Rising also added 464 rushing yards and 6 rushing touchdowns in 2022. This year will be Cam Rising’s senior season, and he’ll attempt to lead the Utes to another Pac-12 title and a potential College Football Playoff berth in 2023. This season will be Rising’s third year as the starter and Kyle Whittingham’s 19th year at the helm for Utah, and the team will be facing real (and deserved) expectations heading into the season.
2023 Season Preview
Key Player Departures: TE Dalton Kincaid, CB Clark Phillips III, OT Braeden Daniels, CB Caine Savage, CB Malone Mataele, EDGE Tyler Wegis, IOL Paul Maile, LB Andrew Mata’afa, LB Mason Tufaga, OT Tyler Knaak
Key Player Additions: WR Mikey Matthews, RG Spencer Fano, RT Solatoa Moea’i, DE Logan Fano, CB Miles Battle, WR Mycah Pittman, TE Landen King, S Briton Allen, WR Emery Simmons, K Cole Becker
Utah lost three key players to the 2023 NFL Draft. The first was first-team All-Pac-12 tight end Dalton Kincaid in the first round. Utes cornerback Clark Phillips III won the Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year Award in 2022 and was drafted in the fourth round. And finally, Utah offensive tackle Braeden Daniels was selected in the fourth round. Utah has an experienced roster, so it’s not yet known if the new faces they brought in through the transfer portal will take over for the three players who are off to the NFL. But it’s fair to say that former Auburn tight end Landen King will likely be angling for the starting tight end spot now that Kincaid is gone. To replace Braeden Daniels, freshman right tackle Solatoa Moea’i could see some time at that spot if there are injuries along the offensive line. The most intriguing defensive addition for Utah is former Ole Miss corner Miles Battle. Battle is 6’4” 188 pounds and was a four-star prospect when he began his career for the Rebels. He’s currently third on the depth chart at the left cornerback spot, but if redshirt freshman nickel back Tao Johnson were to falter, Battle’s size and athleticism could be a potential solution.
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Utah wasn’t good at kicking field goals last season. The Utes only converted 69.23% of their field goal attempts in 2022, a figure that ranked tied for 96th in the FBS. They acquired former Colorado kicker Cole Becker through the transfer portal this past offseason. Becker was great last season for the Buffaloes as he converted 95.2% of his extra point attempts (20 for 21), and 84.6% of his field goal attempts (11 for 13). It’s quite possible that Cole Becker could be the difference between Utah winning and losing multiple close games in 2023.
Key Coaching Departures: Wide receivers coach Chad Bumphis
Key Coaching Promotions/Additions: Wide receivers coach Alvis Whitted
Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham is one of the best coaches in the Pac-12. He’s led the Utes to back-to-back Pac-12 championships and has won at least 7 conference games in back-to-back seasons. On top of that, Whittingham earned a conference championship berth three additional times in the past eight years. His teams have an identity. The Utah Utes play tough, disciplined football. To that end, Utah had the 15th-fewest penalty yards last season and allowed 353.4 yards per game, a figure that ranked 35th in the nation. Whittingham has been the head coach since 2005 and has done a terrific job since taking over.
The biggest change on Whittingham’s staff is the loss of wide receivers coach Chad Bumphis to Mississippi State. He’s been replaced by former Wisconsin wide receivers coach Alvis Whitted. I like the move for Utah because I trust Whittingham’s judgment when making hiring decisions and I like Whitted’s varied coaching background. Whitted was an NFL wide receiver for nine seasons, and he’s been a wide receivers coach at the FBS or NFL level for 11 seasons. It’s worth noting that Alvis Whitted was the wide receivers coach at Colorado State while both Michael Gallup and Rashard Higgins were finalists for the Biletnikoff Award, which is given to college football’s best wide receiver each season. Whitted was also the wide receivers coach for the Green Bay Packers in 2019, and he’s credited with the breakout of superstar wide receiver Davante Adams that year. The wide receivers weren’t necessarily a strength for Utah last season, as the Utes’ leading receiver was tight end Dalton Kincaid, but the addition of Alvis Whitted should have that group performing better in 2023.
NCAA Football Over/Under Prediction
In the past five years, Utah has gone 9-5, 11-3, 3-2, 10-4, and 10-4. Those totals are a bit misleading as they count conference championship games and bowl games, but the point remains: Kyle Whittingham and Utah have won at least 9 regular season games in each of the past four seasons where they played a full slate of contests. His squads have been consistently there at the end of the Pac-12 race seemingly every year over the past half-decade, and it seems likely that they’ll be there again in 2023.
The Utes’ schedule is tied for the 97th hardest out of 131 FBS teams if you go off of last year’s winning percentage. Utah’s only two conference losses came against UCLA and Oregon on the road last season. They’ll get both of those clubs at home this year and should avenge at least one of those losses in 2023. Utah has a good chance of starting 6-0 if they can beat UCLA at home and Oregon State on the road in the first half of the season. If that happens, the Utes could lose to USC, Oregon, and Washington and still finish 9-3, which would be enough to cash the over. If I’m getting better than even odds on Kyle Whittingham and Cam Rising finishing with at least 9 regular season wins, I’m taking it. I’m on the over for Utah’s last year in the Pac-12 in 2023.
NCAA FOOTBALL OVER/UNDER WIN TOTAL PREDICTION: UTAH UTES OVER 8.5 WINS +115