Alabama vs. Auburn Prediction
Will the Auburn Tigers upset the Alabama Crimson Tide in the Iron Bowl or will they not even cover? Kickoff for this year’s installment is set for 3:30 p.m. ET in Auburn.
ODDSMAKERS LIKE: Alabama. According to oddsmakers from online sports book Bovada.lv, the Crimson Tide are now 4.5-point road favorites to knock off the Tigers, who opened as a 3-point underdog. As for the total, the number hit the board at 50 but has been bet down nearly a full three points to 47.5.
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THE PUBLIC LIKES: Alabama. As of Saturday morning, just over 50% of tickets are on the Crimson Tide minus the points.
HISTORICAL TRENDS LIKE: Alabama is 11-1 against the spread when favored between 3 and 6.5 points in conference games following four straight victories. That said, when the Tide has won 10 straight games as a favorite and is playing as a road favorite in a conference game, they’re just 4-19-1 against the number.
WHO WE LIKE: Auburn. You can make a case that the wrong team is favored in this year’s Iron Bowl. The Tigers have been destroying teams of late and are arguably playing their best football of the year. They do have pass-protection issues, but Alabama has had difficulties rushing the passer so even Auburn’s weakness might not be exploited today.
The Tide is slowly getting healthy but not having Shaun Dion Hamilton is a major blow against the Tigers. He sets Nick Saban’s defense and without him, the Tide will once again rely on young, inexperienced players to make sure the defense is in position. That’s a problem against Gus Malzahn’s offense, which often puts defenders on skates. If one player is out of position, it could lead to a big play.
Alabama is 1-4 against the spread in its last five conference games, is 1-4 against the number in its last five games played in November, and is 2-6 at the betting window in its last eight games when facing an opponent with a winning record.
Auburn, meanwhile, is 6-1-1 against the spread in its last eight conference games, is 4-1 against the number in its last five games played in November, and is 5-2-1 at the betting window in its last eight games overall.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 13 PICK: AUBURN TIGERS +4.5