Arkansas vs. Mississippi St. Prediction
Unranked Arkansas heads to Starkville, MS to face #23 Mississippi State at 12:00 PM ET on Saturday. Can the Bulldogs cover the 9.5-point spread as home favorites and improve their conference record to 2-1?
Arkansas is 3-2 on the year, with a ranked win over Cincinnati. They also beat South Carolina and Missouri State. The Razorbacks lost to both LSU and Texas A&M. The Razorbacks are 2-3 ATS on the season.
Mississippi State is 4-1 on the year with a conference win over Texas A&M. The Bulldogs also beat Memphis and Arizona on the season. They lost on the road to LSU 31-16 in week 3. The Bulldogs are 3-1-1 ATS on the year.
Game Matchup and Betting Odds
389 Arkansas Razorbacks +9.5 at 390 Mississippi State Bulldogs -9.5; O/U 57.5
12:00 PM ET Saturday, October 8th, 2022
Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, MS
Arkansas vs. Mississippi State Public Betting Information
The public is slightly favoring the Razorbacks in this game. Our CFB Public Betting Page shows that 52% of public bets are on Arkansas +9.5. Do note that those numbers are subject to change and could be different once game time rolls around.
Arkansas Game Notes
The big question mark for Arkansas on Saturday revolves around quarterback KJ Jefferson. The Razorbacks’ signal caller was removed from last week’s game after he took a hard sack. The injury is listed as a head injury but Arkansas head coach Sam Pittman didn’t state that Jefferson was in concussion protocol. Jefferson hadn’t practiced Monday or Tuesday, but there was an indication that he may practice Wednesday. If he’s cleared to practice this week, there’s a decent chance he suits up on Saturday. He’s thrown for 1,096 yards and 9 touchdowns while rushing for 4 scores this season. If he can’t play Arkansas will turn to either senior Cade Fortin (who finished the Alabama game last week) or sophomore Malik Hornsby.
Mississippi State Game Notes
Mississippi State has no such questions when it comes to the quarterback position. Bulldogs QB Will Rogers is third in the country in passing yards (1,715) and tied for first in passing touchdowns (19). As is the custom in head coach Mike Leach’s spread offense, Rogers has been spreading the ball around. Mississippi State has four wide receivers with 200+ receiving yards and a touchdown on the season. With all that being said, the Bulldogs are a bit reliant on big plays and turnovers. If they can’t force multiple turnovers and record several big chunk plays, they may have a hard time covering this game, as Arkansas will be one of the better teams they’ve faced all year.
Arkansas vs. Mississippi State Betting Trends
Arkansas is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games on grass.
The road team is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings between Arkansas and Mississippi State.
The over is 11-4 in the last 15 meetings between Arkansas and Mississippi State.
The over is 5-1 in Mississippi State’s last 6 home games.
Arkansas vs. Mississippi State Betting Prediction
If you like points, this is the game for you. Arkansas is averaging 30.5 points per game and Mississippi State is averaging 38.2 points per game. The total is 57.5 and I think there’s some value in the over. This is all assuming that Arkansas quarterback KJ Jefferson plays. He seems to be trending in the right direction as of this writing. If he does play, I think the play is Arkansas and the points. I believe that Arkansas has become a bit undervalued because they lost two straight. But those losses were to Alabama (who almost everyone loses to) and Texas A&M in Arlington. The Razorbacks fumbled the ball on the goal line and missed a late field goal to lose to the Aggies 23-21. I think they cover this game on the road in Starkville on Saturday.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 6 PREDICTION: ARKANSAS RAZORBACK +9.5
