One of Tuesday’s college football bowl matchups will pit Baylor vs. LSU in the Kinder’s Texas Bowl at 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN. With the Bears laying 3.5 points as the favorite, will the Tigers pull off the small upset?
Game Matchup & Betting Odds
Baylor Bears (-3.5) vs. LSU Tigers (+3.5); o/u 63.5
3:30 p.m. ET, Tuesday, December 31, 2024
NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
TV: ESPN
Baylor vs. LSU Texas Bowl Public Betting: Bettors Love Tigers
As of this writing, our CFB Public Betting page shows that 73% of bets are on LSU. That said, this page is updated frequently so make sure that you click on the link provided so that you’re getting the most updated information.
Hawkins probable for BU
Ashtyn Hawkins (hand) could be available for Baylor’s bowl game Tuesday against LSU, according to his X account. Hawkins practicing about a week ago suggests he could be available for Baylor’s upcoming game. The wide receiver’s post suggests he will play, though a more definitive announcement will be needed to confirm his bowl availability 100 percent.
Nussmeier return to Baton Rouge
Garrett Nussmeier will return to LSU for one more season, On3.com reports. Nussmeier had a very solid first season as a full-time starter, tossing for 3,735 yards, 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions while completing 63.7 percent of his passes. He’ll return to run it back in Baton Rouge for his redshirt senior season, which is a big deal for an LSU team that had a disappointing 8-4 season in 2024.
Baylor vs. LSU Texas Bowl Betting Trends
Baylor is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Louisiana State’s last 9 games
Baylor is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Louisiana State is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games
Baylor vs. LSU Texas Bowl Prediction
Take LSU. I’m tempted to take the Tigers outright, but ultimately I believe there’s more value in taking the field goal with the hook. LSU is dealing with a handful of opt-outs and players skipping this game to prepare for the NFL draft. However, Brian Kelly and his coaching staff had several weeks to prepare backups – and future starters, mind you – for this game. With Nussmeier playing, the Tigers will have the focal point of their offense in uniform.
As for Baylor, I see the appeal. I really do. The Bears finished with six consecutive wins, they don’t have to worry about opt-outs like LSU does and BU is loaded offensively. That said, I think we’re giving too much credit to the Bears for having a solid season in a down conference and we’re slamming the Tigers for having an okay season in a stacked SEC.
Essentially, LSU failed to meet preseason expectations, while Baylor exceeded expectations. That doesn’t mean the Bears are suddenly 3.5 points better than the Tigers on neutral grass.
Baylor vs. LSU Texas Bowl Prediction: LSU Tigers +3.5