Unranked Baylor travels to Orlando to take on unranked UCF at 3:30 PM ET on Saturday on FS1. Can the Knights cover the 12.5-point spread as home favorites this weekend? Read our Baylor vs. UCF week 4 CFB Betting Prediction to find out!
Baylor is 1-3 straight up this season and 0-3-1 against the spread. Their only win came against Long Island. Their worst loss came against Texas State.
UCF is 3-1 straight up this season and 2-2 against the spread. Their best win came against Boise State, and their only loss came against Kansas State.
Game Matchup & Betting Odds
135 Baylor Bears (+12.5) at 136 UCF Knights (-12.5); O/U 55.5
3:30 PM ET, Saturday, September 30, 2023
FBC Mortgage Stadium, Orlando, FL
Baylor vs. UCF Public Betting Information
As of this writing, the public is favoring the Bears in this game. Our CFB Public Betting page shows that 59% of public bets are on Baylor +12.5. Note that these numbers are subject to change and could be different once game time rolls around.
Baylor Bears Game Notes
The main injury storyline for Baylor is the health of starting quarterback Blake Shapen. Shapen injured the MCL in his knee in the team’s Week 1 loss to Texas State, and he’s missed the team’s last three games with that injury. Shapen is officially listed as questionable for Saturday’s tilt with UCF, with Bears backup QB Sawyer Robertson ready to play if Shapen can’t go. Robertson hasn’t been great this season in relief as he’s only completed 49.5% of his passes for 647 yards, 1 touchdown, and 4 interceptions. It would be hard to trust Robertson in a hostile road environment if he’s forced to take the snaps and run the offense on Saturday.
UCF Knights Game Notes
UCF will be without their starting quarterback John Rhys Plumlee on Saturday. Plumlee injured his leg while sliding at the end of UCF’s Week 2 win over Boise State and he will reportedly miss a few weeks, including this weekend’s game. In his place, UCF will start redshirt sophomore QB Timmy McClain. McClain has looked good in three games of action this season, completing 64.9% of his passes and throwing for 638 yards, 5 touchdowns, and 1 interception. McClain started 9 games as a freshman at South Florida last season and will get another opportunity to show what he can do against a Big 12 defense at home this Saturday.
Baylor vs. UCF Betting Trends
Baylor is 3-6-1 ATS in their last 10 games.
Baylor is 0-3-1 ATS this season.
The over is 7-3 in UCF’s last 10 games.
The over is 10-7 in Baylor’s last 17 games.
Baylor vs. UCF Betting Prediction
Baylor has yet to play a road game this season, and they will likely be walking into a hornet’s nest in Orlando this Saturday. This is UCF’s first year in the Big 12 and Baylor will be their first conference home game. The stadium nicknamed the “Bounce House” should be rocking this weekend. Even if Baylor starting quarterback Blake Shapen is able to play, he may have trouble communicating with his teammates as the crowd figures to be a major factor.
There’s also the matter of Baylor’s suspect run defense. The Bears rank 93rd in the country in opponent average yards per rushing attempt (4.5), while UCF ranks second in the nation in average yards per rushing attempt (6.5). The Knights have three running backs averaging over 5 yards per carry this season, and they should all get a considerable workload against one of the softer run defenses in the FBS. I like UCF to roll in Orlando in their Big 12 home opener on Saturday.