The total for Monday night’s CFP National Championship opened at 55.5 and that’s where it currently sits at most sportsbooks. Is the over a safe bet in tonight’s Washington vs. Michigan title game? Or will both defenses shell out tonight at 7:30 p.m. ET?
Game Matchup & Betting Odds
287 Washington Huskies (+4.5) vs. 288 Michigan Wolverines (-4.5); o/u 55.5
7:30 p.m. ET, Monday, January 1, 2024
Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA
TV: ESPN
Public Bettors Believe CFP National Championship will go Over the Total
As of this writing, our CFB Public Betting page shows that 63% of bets are on the under for tonight’s CFP title game. That said, this page is updated frequently so make sure that you click on the link provided so that you’re getting the most updated information.
Washington Expected to Have top Running Back
Head coach Kalen DeBoer reiterated Saturday that he anticipates Dillon Johnson (lower body) taking the field Monday against Michigan, Chris Vannini of The Athletic reports.
Johnson underwent X-rays Tuesday, which returned negative, paving the path for him to take the field for the national championship game. The junior back went down in a heap during the Sugar Bowl last Monday in the Huskies’ final offensive drive after turning in 21 carries for 49 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He may not be operating at 100 percent in Monday’s contest, but it’s not surprising that Johnson will likely give it a go, given the scope of it.
McCarthy Coming Off Strong Rose Bowl Win
J.J. McCarthy was 17-for-27 passing for 221 yards and three touchdowns during Monday’s 27-20 overtime victory against Alabama. He also had three rushes for 25 yards.
McCarthy didn’t post eye-popping numbers in the contest, but he still delivered all three of Michigan’s touchdowns in regulation en route to the win to secure a spot in the national title game. The contest marked McCarthy’s fourth of the year with at least three passing touchdowns, and he may need another sizable effort in the championship game to keep pace with a high-octane Huskies offense.
Washington vs. Michigan Betting Trends: Both Teams Hot ATS
The Huskies are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games
Washington is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
The Wolverines are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games
Michigan is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Will Washington vs. Michigan Title Game Cash Over?
No. Washington’s offense is explosive. They’re 10th in points per game, first in passing yards per game and are fifth in the nation in yards per play. However, Michigan is first in points per game, second in passing yards per game and fourth in yards per play. While this is the best offense that the Wolverines have faced all season, this is also the best defense that the Huskies have opposed.
Michigan pressured the quarterback on 43% of drop backs, which is the fourth-best in the FBS. Michael Penix Jr. was under pressure on just 24% of his drop backs this season, which was the fourth-lowest in FBS. That will change tonight. The Wolverines will get after Penix, as they’ve pressured signal-callers all season.
The Wolverines’ game plan will also look much different than Washington’s approach offensively. Michigan’s offense was led by Blake Corum, who rushed for his 25th touchdown of the season in the semi-final win over Alabama. The Wolverines will likely lean on their running game to control the contest and win the time of possession battle to keep Penix Jr. on the sideline. If they’re successful on the ground and with their pass rush, then the under is the play tonight in New Orleans.
Washington vs. Michigan CFP Total Prediction: UNDER 55.5