In less than a week, Ohio State will take on Notre Dame in the College Football Playoff National Championship. Read on for recent College Football National Championship betting trends and a history of the big game.
College Football National Championship Betting Trends: The Last 5 Years
In 2024, Michigan took on Washington in the College Football Playoff National Championship. Listed as a 5.5-point favorite at kickoff, the Wolverines jumped out to a 14-3 first quarter lead before the Huskies cut the deficit to 10 before halftime. That same 10-point deficit existed for Washington before Michigan scored 14 points in the fourth quarter to put the game away. The Wolverines covered as a 5.5-point favorite in their 34-13 victory, while the under 55.5 cashed.
In 2023, college football fans were treated to a total blowout. Georgia led TCU 38-7 at halftime in route to a 65-7 dismantling of the Horned Frogs as 14-point favorites. The Bulldogs covered the 61.5-point total on their own.
The favorite also covered in 2022 and once again, it was UGA covering as the favorite. The Bulldogs hammered fellow SEC rival Alabama, 33-18. That said, the game was tight until the fourth quarter. The Crimson Tide actually led 9-6 at halftime before the Dawgs scored 27 points in the final two quarters. Covering as a 3-point favorite, the under 53 also hit.
In 2021, Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide took on Ohio State the last time the Buckeyes appeared in the national title game. Alabama took a 35-17 lead into halftime before adding 17 additional points in the second half of an eventual 52-24 victory. The Crimson Tide covered as 9.5-point favorites, while the over cashed despite the number being set at a whopping 75.5.
In 2020, Joe Burrow and LSU took on Trevor Lawrence and Clemson. Burrow threw for 463 yards and five touchdowns as the Tigers rolled to a 42-25 victory. The Tigers covered as 5.5-point favorites.
College Football National Championship Betting Trends: Do Favorites Dominate?
As you can see from the five-year breakdown above, favorites are a perfect 5-0 against the spread in the national championship. The Wolverines (-4.5), Bulldogs (-14), Bulldogs again (-2.5), Crimson Tide (-8.5) and Tigers (-5.5) all covered while laying points. But how far back do the favorites’ success go in the national championship game?
Not far.
The previous six national title games were covered by underdogs. Clemson beat Alabama outright 44-16 as a 6-point dog in 2019. Georgia didn’t beat Alabama in the 2018 national title game, but did cover as a 4-point underdog in a 3-point overtime loss. Clemson also beat ‘Bama 35-31 as a 6.5-point underdog in 2017 and covered as a 7-point dog in a 45-40 loss to that same Crimson Tide program in 2016. In 2015, Ohio State routed Oregon 42-20 as a 6-point dog and FSU failed to cover as a 6.5-point favorite in a 34-31 win over Auburn.
Thus, while the favorite is 5-0 against the spread in the last five national championship games, the underdog was 6-0 ATS in the prior six title matchups.