SMU vs. Memphis Pick
Will No. 18 Memphis handle covering a double-digit spread at home when the Tigers take on SMU on Saturday at Noon ET?
According to oddsmakers at Bovada.lv, Memphis is the favorite at home, as the Tigers are getting odds of -12 points against the Mustangs. The over/under total for the contest has been set at 75.5 points. Memphis has won three straight meetings with SMU, covering the spread in all three wins. The public is currently putting 73 percent of the wagers on Memphis at home. Saturday’s game takes place from Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium in Memphis, Tennessee and will air live on ESPN News.
Memphis is coming off a 41-14 win at Tulsa two weeks ago to improve to 8-1 on the season and 5-1 in the AAC. The Tigers are 5-3-1 against the spread on the year, going 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games. Memphis is posting 42.3 points and 502.9 yards per game on offense this season. Riley Ferguson has thrown for 2,881 yards and 27 touchdowns to lead the offense while Anthony Miller has 67 catches for 905 yards and 11 touchdowns. Darrell Henderson is the leading rusher with 776 yards and four scores. Defensively, Memphis is giving up 31.2 points and 449.6 yards per game.
SMU is coming off a 43-40 loss at Navy last week for its second straight loss. The Mustangs are now 6-4 on the season and 3-3 in conference play. At the betting window, SMU is 6-4 ATS. However, the Mustangs have failed to cover in four of their last five games. SMU has a great offense, averaging 39.6 points and 497.1 yards per contest. Ben Hicks has thrown for 2,849 yards and 24 touchdowns to lead the offense while Trey Quinn has caught 96 passes with 1,008 yards and eight touchdowns. Xavier Jones is the leading rusher with 806 yards and seven touchdowns. Defensively, SMU is giving up 32.2 points and 469.1 yards per game, that includes 205.5 rushing yards per contest.
Memphis should be able to handle its business on Saturday. The favorite has covered the spread in six of the last seven games in this series. The Tigers are also 4-0-1 ATS in their last five in conference play and 18-7-2 in their last 27 November games. This game is shaping up to be a shootout, but Memphis has the more reliable offense and the more reliable defense. The Tigers should manage enough defensive stops to cover the 12 points.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL PREDICTION: MEMPHIS -12