Merry Week 1, college football fans! Who’s ready for an all-day football bonanza? If you’re looking to wade through all the extras and just get to the main course, here are my five best bets for Week 1 of the college football season.
Penn State vs. West Virginia, 12:00 p.m. ET
Unfortunately, since I post this article the morning of, we’re not getting the best line value. However, I still like the Mountaineers at their current number. The opening line for this game posted at Penn State -10 but has been bet down to 7.5. Things will be rowdy today in Morgantown, WV. The Mountaineers didn’t love that James Franklin and the Nittany Lions added a garbage time touchdown in Happy Valley last season. Beyond the bulletin board material narrative, West Virginia signal-caller Garrett Greene plays with grit. He can make plays with either his arms or his legs and he’s clutch. Drew Allar, meanwhile, is in a new system under Andy Kotelnicki and will step into a hostile environment today. The Nittany Lions will be fortunate to escape today with a win.
My Pick: West Virginia Mountaineers +7.5
Clemson vs. Georgia, 12:00 p.m. ET
The Tigers want to play fast in Garrett Riley’s system and perhaps now that Cade Klubnik is stepping into Year 2, he’ll show great improvement. Clemson likes to play fast and it returns four starts to the offensive line, so the Tigers could force a quick pace today in Atlanta. That said, if they play fast and their offense falters, then Georgia and its slew of weapons will have more scoring opportunities. I have zero question marks about the Bulldogs offense. Even though they prefer to play at a slower tempo, that doesn’t mean they won’t rack up a bunch of points.
My Pick: Georgia Bulldogs over 30.5 Points
Miami at Florida, 3:30 p.m. ET
This is a difficult opening matchup for Miami, but I think the ‘Canes are legit this season. The addition of Cam Ward of Washington State and running back Damien Martinez of Oregon State were huge. Ward needs to protect the ball better if he’s going to take that next step, but he can hurt defenses with both his arm and legs. He’ll also be better protected than he was in his previous stops, as Miami’s offensive line is massive and athletic. Meanwhile, Martinez was a freight train last season for the Beavers and he’ll benefit from that same O-line. The environment might be difficult early for Miami, but the ‘Canes will settle in and their talent will shine.
My Pick: Miami -2.5
Notre Dame at Texas A&M, 7:30 p.m. ET
Duke transfer Riley Leonard is the latest quarterback to head to South Bend. The 6-foot-4, 216-pound signal-caller is a load. You might remember a year ago when Duke hosted No. 9 Clemson. Leonard led the Blue Devils to a 28-7 upset in which he threw for 175 yards but also rushed for 98. Before injuries set in late in the year, Leonard rushed for at least 30 yards in three out of his first five games. In those three contests, he rushed for 98, 97 and 88, respectively. While he settles into his new offense, I expect him to use his legs more early in the season, including tonight in College Station.
My Pick: Riley Leonard over 33.5 Rushing Yards
LSU at USC, 7:30 p.m. ET, Sunday
The Sunday night matchup between the Tigers and Trojans has the potential to be the most fun of the weekend. Why this total isn’t in the 70s, I don’t know, but I find it hard to believe that these two teams won’t push for 35-plus apiece. LSU’s defense is supposed to be improved, but I’ll believe it when I see it. I have more faith in Lincoln Riley’s offense producing, even without Caleb Williams, than I do in Brian Kelly fixing one of the leakiest defenses in the nation last season.
My Picks: LSU/USC Over 64.5