Will Vanderbilt and Arkansas continue to be a thorn in the sides of fellow SEC opponents? Can Duke hang with Miami? Read ahead for our College Football Week 10 Predictions centered on underdogs.
College Football Week 10 Prediction: Arkansas Razorbacks +7.5, 12:00 p.m. ET
The Razorbacks have been a pain in the ass to most SEC opponents this season. While they failed to cover as a 3-point home dog against LSU two weeks ago, the Hogs have covered against every other conference foe they’ve faced this season. Those covers include outright wins at Auburn (+2.5), against Texas A&M at a neutral site (+6.5) and versus Tennessee (+14). Their other ATS win came last Saturday when Arkansas shredded Mississippi State 58-25 as a 7.5-point favorite.
The Rebels, meanwhile, have been the opposite for bettors when it comes to SEC play. They lost outright to Kentucky as a 15.5-point home favorite. They lost outright to LSU as a 4-point road favorite. They beat Oklahoma last week 26-14, but failed to cover as a 19-point favorite. Their lone ATS win in conference play was at South Carolina, whom they beat 27-3 as a 10.5-point favorite.
Ole Miss has been overrated and overvalued by oddsmakers all season. Take the points with the home dog.
College Football Week 10 Prediction: Duke Blue Devils +21, 12:00 p.m. ET
The Blue Devils won’t be able to keep pace with Miami if this turns into a shootout, but the Hurricanes have been terrible in these spots all season long. They covered easily two weeks ago at Louisville, but they were only laying four and still surrendered 45. The Canes have been double-digit favorites six times this season and only covered in two of those games. The last three times Miami laid more than 10 points, it failed to cover each time.
Duke ranks 20th in defensive efficiency in ESPN’s FPI metric. As previously noted, they don’t have the offense to keep pace with Cam Ward and Co. if Miami gets rolling. That said, the Blue Devils are more than capable of giving Ward problems. They faced SMU a week ago as an 11-point dog and nearly beat the Mustangs in overtime (they failed on a 2-point attempt). They’re also 5-2-1 against the spread this season, so they’ve been undervalued by oddsmakers.
College Football Week 10 Prediction: Vanderbilt Commodores (+7.5); 12:45 p.m. ET
When a team tells you who it is, believe it. And Vandy has been a covering machine this season. The Commodores are 6-2 against the spread this season, but those two ATS losses came in non-conference games when they were favored. They lost to Georgia State 36-32 outright as an 8.5-point favorite, then barely beat a hapless Ball State team 24-14 as a 27.5-point favorite.
As an underdog, Vandy has been sensational this season. They beat Virginia Tech outright as a 13-point dog. They lost to Mizzou by three in overtime as a 17.5-point dog. Everyone remembers their 40-35 upset over Alabama before knocking off Kentucky 20-13 as a 13-point underdog. Just last week, the Commodores nearly beat Texas 27-24 as a 17-point home dog.
As for Auburn, the Tigers are coming off a 24-10 victory at Kentucky but that was their first conference victory. It was also only the second time that Auburn covered in SEC play, as its dropped three out of its five conference games ATS.
I don’t know why Auburn would be laying 7.5 in this spot.
