Is Notre Dame in trouble today against a hot Louisville squad? Will Kansas State bounce back following an ugly loss to BYU? And will Georgia outlast Alabama in the Game of the Week? Check out our College Football Week 5 Best Spread Bets.
College Football Week 4 Best Bets Recap
My best bets in Week 4 went 2-1 ATS on Friday and 2-1 ATS on Saturday. While I certainly didn’t break the bank in college football, I’ll never complain about a profitable weekend.
The Utah Utes covered as a 1.5-point road favorite versus Oklahoma State. It looked like Utah would roll at halftime but in typical Utes fashion, the game was closer than it should have been. Nonetheless, they cashed, as did the Tennessee Volunteers (-6 at Oklahoma). What more can we say about the Vols at this point? They’re a wagon.
My lone loss was one that was avoidable and somewhat predictable if you follow one of the bigger tenants of betting. If everyone is on one side of the boat, the boat is likely to tip and everyone winds up wet. Everyone, including myself, was on USC -4 at Michigan. The Wolverines, again, somewhat predictably, beat the Trojans outright in Ann Arbor.
College Football Week 5 Best Spread Bet: Kanas State -5, 12:00 p.m. ET
BYU hammered the Wildcats 38-9 last week but for anyone that watched the game, you know that Kansas State left plenty of opportunities on the table. For example, the Wildcats were stopped on fourth and short twice, once leading to a short-field touchdown for the Cougars. Overall, K-State outgained BYU 367-241 and out-rushed the Cougars 228-to-92.
I won’t try to persuade anyone that the Wildcats should have won the game. That said, the final score was misleading.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma State’s rushing attack has completely disappeared. Ollie Gordon II was a breakout star last season for the Cowboys but he hasn’t generated much behind a shaky Ok State offensive line. The Cowboys would receive a boost up front if right tackle Jake Springfield returned from injury today but even then, I don’t expect Ok State’s ground game to suddenly find its footing. One dimensional offenses, especially those that can’t run the ball, are not teams I want to back.
Give me the Wildcats in a bounce back spot.
College Football Week 5 Best Spread Bet: Louisville Cardinals +6.5, 3:30 p.m. ET
Look, Riley Leonard is a fantastic runner. Full stop. That said, there’s something amiss with his passing. He transferred to South Bend from Duke with the expectation that he was going to take the Irish offense to the next level. Instead, the unit has clearly taken a step back from what it was a year ago, even with a 66-point outburst versus Purdue.
Check out these offensive outputs for Notre Dame this season: 23 at Texas A&M, 14 vs. Northern Illinois (which has since lost to Buffalo), 66 at Purdue and 28 vs. Miami Ohio. Take away the 66-point effort versus the Boilermakers and has Notre Dame been truly impressive this season?
Granted, Louisville hasn’t played anyone this season. The Cardinals opened the year with Austin Peay, then hosted Jacksonville State before finally facing at least a component Georgia Tech squad last week. However, at least Louisville covered as 39.5-, 28.5- and 9.5-point favorites. They’ve also scored 62, 49 and 31 points under Jeff Brohm, who is known to create offense no matter what program he’s coaching.
Could Louisville be smoke and mirrors? Absolutely, but I’ll pay to find out today.
College Football Week 5 Best Spread Bet: Georgia Bulldogs -1
Outside of its 33-18 thrashing of Alabama in the national championship game two years ago, Georgia has not fared well in this rivalry. In fact, the Crimson Tide has won eight out of the last 10 meetings between these two teams, including last season’s 27-24 victory in the SEC title game.
I also realize the last time we saw the Bulldogs, they were being stifled by a good-but-not-great Kentucky team in Lexington. UGA was a 21.5-point favorite in that one and nearly lost outright before holding on to a 13-12 victory. The last time we saw Alabama, the Crimson Tide was kicking Wisconsin’s ass, 42-10.
So why back the Bulldogs? Because I envision a pass-happy team turning more balanced tonight in Tuscaloosa. The Crimson Tide relies on 3-3 or 2-4 defensive fronts under new defensive coordinator Kane Wommack. Georgia hasn’t been able to run the ball with much success this season, which should play into Alabama’s hands. However, I expect Kirby Smart and UGA’s game plan to center on keeping the ball on the ground, playing ball control and leaning on their defense.
Ultimately, the game will come down to the fourth quarter, perhaps even the final possession. Jalen Milore has been incredible at times. He’s also turnover prone and can be sloppy, especially in the first half. If Georgia gets a lead, I expect it to hold on.