Will Colorado pull off the upset as a home dog versus Kansas State? Can Oregon take down the No. 2 team in the nation? Will Army continue to be a wagon? Check out our College Football Week 7 Best Bets.
College Football Week 6 Best Bets Recap
Last Saturday, I recommended the Ohio State-Iowa over 45, Tennessee -13.5 at Arkansas and Arizona State -2.5 versus the struggling Kansas Jayhawks. As we all know, the Vols were the latest victims of the new age of college football parity, as they lost outright to the Razorbacks in Fayetteville.
My over in the Iowa-Ohio State game fell a field goal short of pushing, but the Sun Devils came through in a back-and-forth affair in which they won, 35-31. I’m not thrilled with a 1-2 ATS Saturday, so let’s improve for Week 7.
College Football Week 7 Best Bets: Army over 41.5 Points (-122), 12:00 p.m. ET
Army is a f*cking wagon this season. I know 41.5 points feels like a lot to lay for a team total, until you realize they scored 49 points in Tulsa last Saturday. Or 42 points at Temple two weeks ago. In fact, in their five games this season, Army scored at least 37 points in all but one of those games (at FAU, when they scored 24).
Here’s the problem for the Blazers. Not only are they facing the No. 2 team in terms of offensive efficiency, but their defense ranks 122nd in defensive efficiency. Offensively, UAB is 107th in efficiency, which means the Blazers likely won’t have the ball much today versus Army. Assuming the Black Knights don’t start settling for field goals over touchdowns, we should cash this team total.
College Football Week 7 Best Bets: Oregon Ducks +3, 7:30 p.m. ET
I’ve listened to a lot of college football pundits debate whether or not Oregon is any good. The Ducks opened the season with a narrow 24-14 win over Idaho as a 49-point favorite. The following week, they were fortunate to survive Boise State, which took the Ducks to the brink in Oregon’s 37-34 victory. Oregon then blew out Oregon State before failing to cover as 23.5- and 22.5-point favorites against UCLA and Michigan State, respectively.
However, are we sure Ohio State is good? Or this good? Who the hell have they played? Iowa? That same Michigan State team that Oregon beat?
Yes, the Buckeyes are top-5 in offensive and defensive efficiency. Their wins this season consist of Akron, Western Michigan, Marshall, Michigan State and Iowa. So for those keeping track at home, they’ve beaten two MAC opponents, a Sun Belt foe, a Spartans squad in the midst of a down season and Iowa, which is still trying to win every game 16-13. Fantastic.
Ryan Day is a great coach. Full stop. He also seems to shrink in this big games. The bottom line for me is that these two teams are evenly matched, yet Ohio State has to go into Eugene and play a night game with a head coach that can’t win big games. Give me the Ducks.
College Football Week 7 Best Bets: Colorado Buffalos +3.5
The last time I backed the Buffs was on September 7 when they were embarrassed by Nebraska in Lincoln. The following week, I faded CU against Colorado State and the Buffs burned me. I’ve ignored them ever since.
That said, Deion and Co. have something going right now. Since that loss in Lincoln, the Buffs have rattled off three straight wins and three straight covers. They appear to be improving each week too, scoring 28, 38 and 48 points versus Colorado State, Baylor and UCF, respectively. Two of those games were on the road.
On the other side, K-State is coming off a bye after rocking Oklahoma State 42-20. That’s an impressive win, until you consider the fact that the OK State isn’t that good. The last time the Cowboys went on the road, they were hammered by BYU, 38-9.
I’m reluctant to back CU again, but I like the Buffs as a home dog tonight.